**Trader consensus clusters around 8 or 9 countries for U.S. military actions in 2026, with 8 at 34% and 9 at 29.3%.** This reflects confirmed operations in Venezuela (January raid capturing Maduro), Iran (major airstrikes and ongoing exchanges since late February), plus counterterrorism strikes in Somalia, Nigeria, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen targeting ISIS, Houthis, and related groups. By mid-June, these have produced roughly seven documented theaters. The narrow spread between the top two outcomes stems from uncertainty over whether the Iran conflict and its regional spillovers will add one more distinct country by year-end or remain contained amid fragile ceasefires and blockade enforcement. Ongoing U.S. posture in the Middle East, potential proxy responses, and any new counter-narcotics or African operations could push the total to nine, while successful de-escalation or focus on existing fronts could hold the count at eight. Late-year developments such as expanded strikes, new diplomatic breakdowns, or shifts in African or Latin American theaters remain the main variables that could separate the probabilities.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाUS intensifies strikes on Iran’s coast along Strait of Hormuz
8 dips to 1%3%
On July 9, 2026, US forces hit approximately 90 targets mostly along Iran’s coastline near the Strait of Hormuz, stepping up bombing campaigns after President Trump declared the truce agreement over. Iran retaliated by firing missiles and drones at US military sites in partner countries, but US strikes remained focused on Iranian territory.
US strikes approximately 90 military targets along Iran’s coastline
9 rises to 32%2%
On July 9, 2026, US Central Command reported strikes on about 90 military targets including missile and drone storage and logistics sites along Iran’s coast. This continued military pressure in Iran and surrounding regions influenced market expectations for the number of countries targeted.
Iran targets US military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain in response to US strikes
Iran's IRGC launched drone and missile attacks on US military infrastructure in Kuwait and Bahrain, demonstrating ongoing retaliatory strikes on these countries' territories and confirming their involvement in the conflict with the US.
U.S. launches extensive strikes on approximately 90 Iranian military targets
8 drops to 30%5%
American forces struck around 90 Iranian military targets including air defense systems, drone and missile storage sites, and logistics infrastructure along the coast. Iran responded with drone and missile attacks on U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, further escalating tensions.
US conducts additional strikes on Iran amid escalating tensions
9 rises to 35%3%
On July 8, 2026, US Central Command announced additional strikes against Iran to degrade its ability to threaten freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian forces responded with missile and drone attacks on US bases in Bahrain and Kuwait, expanding the conflict to multiple countries in the region and impacting market pricing.
U.S. launches extensive airstrikes on Iranian military targets along Strait of Hormuz
8 dips to 20%1%
The U.S. military struck around 90 Iranian military targets including air defense systems, drone and missile storage sites, and logistics infrastructure. This large-scale strike further confirmed the U.S. focus on Iranian territory only, with no reported strikes on other countries' soil.
US launches extensive strikes on around 90 Iranian military targets
The US conducted a large-scale airstrike campaign targeting approximately 90 Iranian military sites including air defense systems and logistics infrastructure, further intensifying military actions on Iranian soil and reinforcing the market's view of US strikes in Iran.
U.S. launches strikes on over 80 Iranian targets in Persian Gulf amid escalating tensions
8 jumps to 35%10%
U.S. Central Command launched a large-scale attack on Iranian air defense, command centers, radar sites, and IRGC naval boats in retaliation for Iranian attacks on commercial vessels, marking a significant escalation in U.S.-Iran hostilities.
US Central Command launches retaliatory strikes on over 80 Iranian targets in Persian Gulf
8 jumps to 10%6%
In response to Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, US forces launched strikes on more than 80 Iranian targets including air defense systems, command and control networks, and IRGC naval small boats. This large-scale operation reaffirmed US military action on Iranian soil in 2026.
US hits over 80 Iranian military targets and reimposes oil sanctions
The US military struck more than 80 Iranian military targets in retaliation for attacks on commercial ships, with no reports of strikes on other countries, reinforcing the market's view of limited geographic scope of US strikes.
US Unleashes Massive Wave of Strikes on 80 Targets in Iran
9 rises to 34%2%
The US military launched a major offensive striking over 80 targets along the Iranian coastline in response to attacks on commercial shipping, effectively ending the short-lived ceasefire.
CENTCOM launches retaliatory strikes on over 80 Iranian targets in Strait of Hormuz region
10 jumps to 29%13%
In response to Iranian attacks on commercial vessels, U.S. Central Command conducted extensive airstrikes targeting Iranian air defense, command networks, coastal radar, and IRGC naval boats along the Iranian coastline and islands, marking a major escalation and confirming multiple strikes on Iranian territory.
Trump declares US-Iran Islamabad MOU peace deal over after Persian Gulf airstrikes
10 rises to 32%3%
Following the U.S. airstrikes on Iranian military targets, President Trump announced the collapse of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding with Iran, signaling the end of diplomatic efforts and a return to open conflict, reinforcing market expectations of ongoing U.S. military actions in Iran.
US Central Command conducts extensive airstrikes on over 80 Iranian military targets
8 jumps to 34%8%
On July 7-8, 2026, US CENTCOM launched two waves of heavy airstrikes against more than 80 targets along Iran's southern coastline, including missile batteries, radar arrays, and IRGC naval craft. This was a direct retaliation for Iranian attacks on commercial vessels and further confirmed Iran as the sole country targeted by US strikes in 2026.
US launches new strikes on Iran after reinstating oil sanctions over shipping attacks
9 rises to 35%3%
On July 7, 2026, the US military launched a new wave of strikes against Iran targeting air defense systems, coastal surveillance, surface-to-air missiles, and drone launch sites following attacks on commercial shipping. This further intensified the conflict and influenced market expectations for US military actions in the region.
Iranian missile and drone strikes target US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain
9 rises to 30%4%
Following US strikes on Iran, Iran launched missile and drone attacks targeting US military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. US forces responded with strikes on Iranian targets, confirming US military action in Kuwait and Bahrain territories in 2026.
Iran retaliates with missile and drone strikes on US bases in Bahrain and Kuwait
Following US strikes on Iran, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched missile and drone attacks on US military facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait, expanding the conflict to these countries' territories and increasing the count of countries involved in US military actions.
US conducts second night of strikes on Iran after another drone attack on commercial vessel
8 jumps to 15%10%
Following a second Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, the US launched additional airstrikes on Iranian military targets, further escalating the conflict in Iran.
Iran retaliates with missile and drone strikes on U.S. bases in Bahrain and Kuwait
8 rises to 21%4%
Following U.S. strikes on Iran, Iran launched missile and drone attacks on U.S. military bases in Bahrain and Kuwait. While these attacks occurred on foreign soil, there is no evidence of U.S. military strikes on these countries, confirming that U.S. strikes remained confined to Iran.
U.S. launches additional strikes on Iranian military targets around Strait of Hormuz
8 dips to 35%3%
The U.S. military conducted further strikes on Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites. Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, escalating the conflict and threatening diplomatic processes.
U.S. launches additional strikes on Iranian military targets around Strait of Hormuz
9 jumps to 35%5%
Following continued Iranian aggression, the U.S. conducted further airstrikes targeting Iranian military surveillance infrastructure, communication systems, and drone storage facilities. This confirmed ongoing U.S. military operations solely on Iranian soil.
US conducts additional strikes on Iranian military targets near Strait of Hormuz
Following continued Iranian aggression, the US launched further strikes on Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites, maintaining the focus on Iranian territory only.
US Central Command confirms strikes on Iranian military infrastructure after tanker attack
Following the June 26 strikes, US Central Command detailed targeting of Iranian surveillance, communication, air defense, and drone facilities in retaliation for an attack on a Panama-flagged merchant vessel. This sustained military action reinforced market views on US strikes limited to Iran.
Iran retaliates with drone and missile strikes on US bases in Bahrain and Kuwait
8 dips to 23%3%
In response to US strikes, Iran launched drone and ballistic missile attacks targeting US military bases in Bahrain and Kuwait, increasing regional tensions but no US strikes on these countries were reported.
U.S. conducts airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites in response to drone attack on commercial ship
8 jumps to 17%12%
In retaliation for an Iranian drone strike on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. launched airstrikes against Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites. This confirmed continued U.S. military action solely on Iranian soil, reinforcing the market's expectation of limited strike countries.
US conducts retaliatory strikes on Iranian missile and drone sites
8 jumps to 35%8%
In response to an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, the US Central Command conducted military strikes against Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites. This further confirmed ongoing US military action in Iran in 2026.
US conducts military strikes on Iranian missile and drone sites in response to drone attack
9 jumps to 36%6%
On June 26, 2026, the US military launched airstrikes against Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites along the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel. This action further confirmed ongoing US military operations on Iranian soil in 2026.
US conducts airstrikes on Iranian missile, drone, and radar sites
9 jumps to 38%13%
In retaliation for an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, US Central Command launched airstrikes against Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites. This marked a significant military action on Iranian soil in 2026, affecting market probabilities.
US launches airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites after drone attack on commercial ship
8 jumps to 19%14%
In response to an Iranian drone attack on the Singapore-flagged cargo ship Ever Lovely in the Strait of Hormuz, the US conducted targeted airstrikes on Iranian missile storage, drone facilities, and coastal radar installations. This marked a significant escalation but was confined to Iranian territory.
US launches retaliatory strikes on Iranian targets after drone attack on commercial ship
9 jumps to 36%12%
On June 26, 2026, the US launched strikes against Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites in response to an Iranian drone attack on a Singapore-flagged cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz. This marked a significant escalation and reaffirmed US military action on Iranian soil.
U.S. conducts airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites in retaliation for drone attack on commercial ship
9 rises to 30%4%
In response to an Iranian drone strike on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. launched airstrikes against Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites. This was a direct military action on Iranian territory.
U.S. military launches airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites after drone attack on cargo ship
8 surges to 28%23%
In retaliation for an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. forces struck Iranian missile storage, drone facilities, and coastal radar sites, escalating the conflict and undermining a fragile ceasefire.
US launches strikes on Iranian missile and drone sites after drone attack on cargo ship
In response to an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, the US military struck Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites, reaffirming US military action limited to Iran.
US conducts airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites near Strait of Hormuz
The US launched airstrikes using fighter jets against four Iranian sites along the Strait of Hormuz and Qeshm Island in retaliation for an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel. This marked a significant escalation in US military action on Iranian soil, impacting market expectations for strikes in 2026.
US Launches Retaliatory Airstrikes Against Iranian Coastal Targets
9 jumps to 29%5%
Following an attack on a commercial cargo ship, the US military launched targeted airstrikes on missile and drone facilities in southern Iran and Qeshm Island.
US conducts strikes on Iranian missile and drone sites in response to tanker attack
9 rises to 30%4%
On June 26, 2026, US Central Command conducted military strikes against Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites in response to an Iranian attack on a commercial ship. This confirmed ongoing US military action on Iranian soil during 2026.
US launches retaliatory airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites after drone attack on cargo ship
9 jumps to 36%8%
In response to an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz on June 25, 2026, the US conducted airstrikes on Iranian missile, drone storage, and radar sites near the Strait and on Qeshm Island, marking the latest US military action on Iranian soil in 2026.
U.S. military launches airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone facilities after drone attack on commercial ship
9 jumps to 23%10%
Following an Iranian drone attack on a Singapore-flagged commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. forces conducted retaliatory airstrikes on four Iranian military installations along the southern coast and Qeshm Island, escalating military conflict and signaling direct U.S. action on Iranian soil.
US conducts precision airstrikes against ISIS camp in Libya
9 rises to 3%2%
On June 25, 2026, US Africa Command conducted six precision airstrikes against an Islamic State camp in Libya, killing 17 militants. The strikes were coordinated with Libya's Government of National Accord and targeted ISIS infrastructure used for movement, weapons stockpiling, and planning attacks.
US Africa Command conducts airstrikes targeting al-Shabaab in Somalia
On June 19, 2026, US Africa Command conducted airstrikes targeting al-Shabaab militants in Somalia in coordination with the Somali government. This continued the US campaign against Islamist militants in East Africa.
U.S. launches strikes on Iranian air defenses near Strait of Hormuz
8 plunges to 5%42%
Following the downing of a U.S. attack helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. military targeted Iranian air defenses and radar sites. Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on U.S. bases in Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain, but no U.S. strikes on these countries' soil were reported, maintaining Iran as the only strike location.
US launches strikes against multiple targets in Iran amid rising tensions
9 jumps to 10%6%
The US military launched strikes against multiple Iranian targets following Iranian missile and drone attacks on US bases in Jordan. The strikes were confined to Iranian soil, with no reports of US strikes on other countries, supporting the market's view of a single-country military action.
US conducts self-defense strikes on Iranian targets after missile and drone attacks
12 dips to 3%2%
On June 3, 2026, the US military carried out strikes against Iranian military facilities on Qeshm Island in response to Iranian missile and drone attacks targeting US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, and other Gulf countries. This escalation reinforced the US military presence and strike activity in multiple countries in the region.
US bombs Iranian military sites and downs missiles fired at troops in Kuwait
The US bombed radar and drone sites in Iran after Tehran shot down an American drone. Iran retaliated with missile attacks on US troops in Kuwait, which were intercepted. This event confirmed ongoing US strikes on Iranian soil only.
U.S. conducts airstrikes on Iranian drone control sites in southern Iran
8 plunges to 5%42%
The U.S. military launched airstrikes targeting Iranian drone ground-control stations and missile launch sites in southern Iran, responding to aggressive Iranian actions including the downing of a U.S. drone. This marked a significant escalation in U.S. military action on Iranian soil, reinforcing the market's focus on Iran as the sole target country.
US strikes Iranian drone command sites near Strait of Hormuz
CENTCOM reported US fighter aircraft eliminated Iranian air defenses and drone command sites near the Strait of Hormuz, continuing the pattern of US strikes exclusively on Iranian soil.
US Central Command Strikes Iranian-Linked Drone Facility in Syria
8 jumps to 29%7%
US forces conducted a precision strike on a drone launch facility in Syria's Deir ez-Zor province, solidifying Syria's place on the list of targeted countries.
US conducts precision strike on Iranian-linked drone facility in Syria
8 jumps to 30%7%
US Central Command carried out a precision air strike on a drone launch facility in eastern Syria linked to Iranian-aligned militias, marking a direct US military action on Syrian soil. This strike was part of ongoing efforts to counter drone threats to US personnel in the region and confirmed US military action in Syria in 2026.
U.S. strikes Iranian-linked drone facility in Syria amid escalating tensions
9 rises to 23%1%
U.S. Central Command conducted a precision strike on a drone launch facility in eastern Syria linked to Iranian militias, marking U.S. military action on Syrian soil and signaling escalation in regional drone warfare.
U.S. conducts precision strike on Iranian-linked drone facility in Syria
8 dips to 19%3%
U.S. Central Command launched a precision airstrike on a drone launch facility in eastern Syria linked to Iranian-aligned militias, marking a significant escalation in regional tensions and demonstrating U.S. resolve to counter drone threats. This strike confirmed U.S. military action on Syrian soil, impacting market expectations for the number of countries targeted.
US conducts new strikes on Iranian military site and drones near Strait of Hormuz
9 rises to 11%4%
On May 27, 2026, the US military carried out strikes on an Iranian ground control station in Bandar Abbas and shot down Iranian attack drones threatening the Strait of Hormuz, reaffirming ongoing US military action solely on Iranian territory.
US conducts self-defense strikes on Iranian missile launch sites and boats
The US military carried out self-defense strikes targeting Iranian missile launch sites and boats around the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing ceasefire negotiations, reinforcing the focus on Iranian territory for US military action.
US conducts self-defense strikes on Iranian missile launch sites and boats
9 surges to 27%17%
The US military carried out self-defense strikes targeting Iranian missile launch sites and boats around the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing ceasefire negotiations. This continued pattern of strikes against Iranian territory reinforced market confidence that the US would not strike other countries in 2026.
US Africa Command conducts coordinated strike against ISIS in Nigeria
8 plunges to 5%42%
US Africa Command, in coordination with the Nigerian government, conducted airstrikes against ISIS militants in Northeastern Nigeria, marking Nigeria as a country where US military action occurred in 2026.
US and Nigeria conduct joint airstrikes against ISIS in Northeastern Nigeria
8 surges to 37%25%
At the direction of the US President and Secretary of War, and in coordination with the Nigerian government, U.S. Africa Command conducted airstrikes against ISIS militants in Northeastern Nigeria starting May 16, 2026, marking significant US military action on Nigerian soil.
US and Nigeria begin joint military operation against ISWAP and Boko Haram
9 surges to 29%17%
On May 15, 2026, the US and Nigeria launched joint military operations including airstrikes against Islamic State West Africa Province and Boko Haram militants in northeastern Nigeria, marking US military action on Nigerian soil.
US and Nigerian forces launch joint military operation with airstrikes against ISWAP in Nigeria
9 surges to 29%17%
On May 15, 2026, the US and Nigeria began a joint military operation against ISWAP and Boko Haram in northeastern Nigeria, including special forces raids and multiple rounds of airstrikes. This operation killed senior ISWAP leaders and intensified US military involvement in Nigeria.
US launches missile and drone strikes on Iranian military facilities
10 rises to 19%4%
The US military launched strikes on Iranian military sites responsible for attacks on US forces, escalating tensions and confirming US military action on Iranian soil. This event influenced market prices by increasing the perceived number of countries targeted by US strikes.
US military strikes Iranian facilities in Bandar Abbas and Qeshm
9 jumps to 26%14%
US forces targeted Iranian military facilities responsible for missile, drone, and small boat attacks against US warships in the Strait of Hormuz area, including Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island. This action was part of ongoing US military operations in Iran, reinforcing expectations of multiple strike locations.
US forces strike Iranian military facilities near Strait of Hormuz
US Central Command announced strikes on Iranian missile, drone, and command sites responsible for attacks on US warships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, escalating tensions and confirming US military action on Iranian soil.
US military strikes Iranian military facilities near Strait of Hormuz
8 rises to 27%4%
US forces conducted strikes on Iranian missile and drone launch sites, command and control locations, and intelligence nodes near the Strait of Hormuz in response to Iranian attacks on US warships. This confirmed Iran as a country targeted by US military strikes in 2026.
U.S. forces strike Iranian military facilities in response to missile and drone attacks
9 jumps to 25%12%
U.S. Central Command announced strikes on Iranian missile and drone launch sites and command centers in southern Iran, targeting facilities responsible for attacks on U.S. warships. This confirmed continued U.S. aerial military actions on Iranian soil.
US strikes Iranian military sites in Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island
In response to missile, drone, and boat attacks on US destroyers, the US conducted strikes on Iranian military sites in Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island. This reinforced the market's view that US military action was confined to Iran.
US forces strike Iranian military facilities after missile and drone attacks
9 jumps to 27%14%
US Central Command confirmed strikes on Iranian missile and drone launch sites responsible for attacks on US warships in the Strait of Hormuz. The strikes targeted multiple Iranian locations including Bandar Abbas and Qeshm, reaffirming that US military action was confined to Iran.
U.S. forces strike Iranian military facilities near Strait of Hormuz
8 rises to 23%1%
U.S. Central Command conducted airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone launch sites, command centers, and surveillance nodes near the Strait of Hormuz in response to Iranian attacks on U.S. warships, escalating military tensions in the region.
US disables Iranian oil tankers amid renewed missile and drone attacks in Gulf
12 dips to 3%2%
The US Central Command disabled two Iranian oil tankers attempting to reach Iranian ports, enforcing a naval blockade. This action coincided with fresh missile and drone attacks reported by the UAE, indicating ongoing US military operations in the Gulf region and sustaining market expectations for strikes in multiple Middle Eastern countries.
US and African partners conduct Exercise African Lion 2026 in multiple African countries
8 plunges to 5%42%
The US co-led a large multinational military exercise across Ghana, Morocco, Senegal, and Tunisia, demonstrating military cooperation and presence in these African countries in 2026.
Iranian missile and drone strike injures US troops in Saudi Arabia
8 plunges to 5%42%
An Iranian missile and drone strike on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia injured multiple US soldiers, highlighting Saudi Arabia as a country where US military presence was directly attacked in 2026.
US Strike on Iraqi Military Base Kills Seven PMF-Linked Soldiers
15+ rises to 7%4%
A US airstrike targeted the Habbaniya military base in Iraq's Al Anbar Governorate, confirming Iraq as one of the active countries subjected to US military action in 2026.
US conducts precision airstrike killing senior ISIS leader in Iraq
9 rises to 4%3%
On March 13, 2026, US Central Command carried out a precision airstrike in Al Anbar province, Iraq, killing Abdallah “Abu Khadijah” Makki Muslih al-Rifai, the second-in-command of ISIS, and another operative. This strike was part of ongoing US counterterrorism operations targeting ISIS in Iraq during 2026.
US conducts multiple airstrikes against Iran-backed militias in Iraq
Since the outbreak of the 2026 Iran war, the US has conducted numerous airstrikes targeting Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, including the Popular Mobilization Forces. These strikes have killed dozens of militia members and targeted multiple bases across Iraq.
Drone attack hits US diplomatic facility in Iraq
8 plunges to 5%42%
A drone assault targeted a major US diplomatic facility in Iraq, reflecting ongoing hostilities and US military involvement in Iraq during 2026.
Trump administration expands counterterrorism operations including strikes in Iraq, Nigeria, and Somalia
In early 2026, the Trump administration approved the expansion of counterterrorism operations that included bombing targets in Iraq, Nigeria, and Somalia, reflecting a broader military engagement across multiple countries.
US conducts strikes on Iranian radar and drone sites after MQ-1 drone shootdown
12 dips to 2%3%
Following the shootdown of a US MQ-1 drone, the US military launched strikes on Iranian radar and drone command sites on Qeshm Island and Goruk. This action escalated hostilities and was part of ongoing US military operations against Iran, influencing market prices for strikes in the Middle East.
Iranian missile and drone strikes target US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan
12 dips to 2%3%
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed missile and drone attacks on US military bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan, marking a sharp escalation and retaliation for US strikes. These attacks increased regional tensions and the likelihood of further US military responses in multiple countries.
Drone strikes near US embassies in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait amid escalating conflict
12 dips to 2%3%
Drone activity targeted areas near US diplomatic compounds in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, leading to heightened security alerts and embassy closures. This expansion of conflict zones to include diplomatic sites underscored the widening scope of US military involvement in the region.
US conducts airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites in response to attacks
9 jumps to 8%5%
Following the initial strikes, the US continued targeting Iranian missile and drone storage locations and radar sites, responding to Iranian missile and drone attacks on US bases and allies in the region. This sustained campaign confirmed ongoing US military action on Iranian soil.
US deploys B-2 bombers, Tomahawk missiles, and suicide drones in strikes on Iran
9 plunges to 15%32%
The US intensified its military campaign against Iran using advanced weaponry including Tomahawk cruise missiles, B-2 stealth bombers, and suicide drones targeting Iranian military facilities. This demonstrated a significant escalation in US air strikes exclusively on Iranian territory, reinforcing market expectations of limited country targets.
US deploys Tomahawk missiles, B-2 bombers, and suicide drones in strikes on Iran
8 drops to 0%5%
The US intensified its bombing campaign against Iranian military sites using advanced weaponry including Tomahawk cruise missiles, B-2 stealth bombers, and suicide drones, reinforcing the focus on Iran and limiting expectations of strikes in other countries.
Iranian missile and drone strikes target US bases in Middle East
8 plunges to 5%42%
Iran launched retaliatory missile and drone strikes on US military bases in several Middle Eastern countries, including Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia, indicating US military presence and conflict in these countries.
U.S. deploys Tomahawk missiles, B-2 bombers, and suicide drones in strikes on Iran
9 plunges to 15%32%
The U.S. intensified its military campaign against Iranian targets using advanced weaponry including Tomahawk cruise missiles, stealth bombers, and suicide drones. This marked a significant escalation in aerial strikes on Iranian soil, confirming active U.S. military operations in Iran.
US deploys Tomahawk missiles, B-2 bombers, and suicide drones in strikes on Iran
9 drops to 7%7%
The US intensified its air campaign against Iran using advanced weaponry including Tomahawk cruise missiles, B-2 stealth bombers, and suicide drones, demonstrating sustained military action exclusively against Iranian targets in early March 2026.
Iran Retaliates with Missile and Drone Strikes Across the Persian Gulf
15+ rises to 3%2%
Iran launched retaliatory strikes against US bases and allied nations, expanding the conflict's geographic footprint and raising fears of wider US counter-strikes across multiple regional countries.
U.S. deploys Tomahawk missiles, B-2 bombers, and suicide drones in strikes on Iran
8 dips to 1%4%
Following the initial wave of strikes, the U.S. intensified its bombing campaign using advanced weaponry including Tomahawk cruise missiles, stealth B-2 bombers, and suicide drones against Iranian missile and military facilities, reinforcing the focus on Iran as the primary target of U.S. military action.
US and Israel launch massive coordinated strikes on Iranian military targets
12 plunges to 3%44%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched nearly 900 strikes targeting Iranian missiles, air defenses, military infrastructure, and leadership, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and others. This marked a major escalation and set the stage for retaliatory strikes and increased US military activity in the region, significantly impacting market expectations for US strikes in multiple countries.
US and Israeli forces launch coordinated strikes on Iran
11 plunges to 6%41%
Following failed nuclear negotiations, the US and Israel launched nearly 900 strikes targeting Iranian missiles, air defenses, and military infrastructure, marking a major escalation in the conflict and initiating Operation Epic Fury.
US and Israeli forces launch extensive strikes on Iranian military targets
8 plunges to 0%47%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel conducted nearly 900 strikes targeting Iranian missiles, air defenses, military infrastructure, and leadership, marking a significant escalation in military action against Iran. This event increased market confidence that the US would conduct strikes on Iranian soil, affecting the probability of higher strike counts.
US and Israel launch coordinated airstrikes on Iran
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched coordinated airstrikes on multiple targets across Iran, marking the start of Operation Epic Fury. This significant military action targeted Iranian nuclear and military facilities, setting the stage for ongoing US airstrikes in Iran throughout 2026.
US and Israel conduct joint military strikes on Iran
9 drops to 35%12%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched nearly 900 strikes targeting Iranian missiles, air defenses, military infrastructure, and leadership, including killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. This marked the start of a major military conflict involving Iran and significantly influenced market expectations for US strikes in multiple countries in the region.
US and Israel launch coordinated strikes on Iran targeting military and nuclear sites
9 plunges to 3%44%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched a large-scale airstrike campaign against Iran, targeting nuclear facilities, missile production sites, and command centers. This marked the start of Operation Epic Fury and significantly escalated US military action in the region, increasing the count of countries involved in US strikes to include Iran.
US and Israeli forces launch nearly 900 strikes on Iranian military targets
9 plunges to 3%44%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel conducted a massive coordinated strike campaign against Iranian missile sites, air defenses, military infrastructure, and leadership, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and dozens of others. This major military action established Iran as a confirmed target country for US strikes in 2026, significantly impacting market expectations.
U.S. and Israeli forces launch nearly 900 strikes on Iranian military targets
8 plunges to 5%42%
On February 28, 2026, U.S. and Israeli forces conducted a massive coordinated strike campaign against Iranian missile sites, air defenses, and military infrastructure, killing key Iranian officials including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. This marked a significant escalation in military action against Iran, influencing market expectations of U.S. strikes on Iranian soil.
U.S. ATACMS strike hits Iranian missile and air‑defence sites
9 jumps to 13%9%
U.S. forces launched an ATACMS strike that destroyed Iranian missile and air‑defence sites, marking the first combat use of a U.S. autonomous kamikaze drone against Iran. This added Iran as a second distinct country hit by U.S. air‑launched weapons in 2026.
Iran fires missiles and drones at United Arab Emirates after U.S.‑Israel strike
10 rises to 13%1%
Following the U.S.–Israel strikes on Iran, Iran launched a multiday barrage of missiles and drones at the United Arab Emirates. The UAE’s defence systems intercepted many of them, but the exchange confirmed the UAE as a third distinct country involved in the 2026 U.S. strike/retaliation cycle.
US and Israel conduct military strikes on Iran targeting missile and nuclear sites
8 surges to 27%17%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched coordinated military strikes on Iranian missile, air defense, and nuclear-related facilities, marking a major US military action on Iranian soil and escalating regional conflict.
US and Israel launch nearly 900 strikes on Iranian military targets
9 dips to 2%1%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel conducted a massive coordinated strike campaign against Iranian missile, air defense, and military infrastructure, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and dozens of officials. This marked the start of a major US military campaign on Iranian soil, significantly affecting market expectations.
US and Israel launch joint military strikes on Iran
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel conducted coordinated airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear facilities, marking the start of Operation Epic Fury. This initiated a major conflict with Iran and set the stage for subsequent US military actions exclusively on Iranian soil.
US and Israel launch Operation Epic Fury against Iran
9 rises to 3%2%
On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury, a massive coordinated military campaign targeting Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure. The operation included hundreds of precision strikes, resulting in the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and significant degradation of Iran's military capabilities, marking a major escalation in US-Iran conflict.
US and Israel Launch Operation Epic Fury Against Iran
11 jumps to 14%13%
The United States and Israel launched a massive coordinated air campaign against Iranian military, missile, and air defense infrastructure, marking the official start of the 2026 Iran War.
US and Israel launch major joint military strikes against Iran
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched coordinated air and missile strikes against multiple Iranian military and government targets, marking one of the most significant US military actions in Iran in decades. This escalation followed failed nuclear negotiations and increased US military presence in the region, significantly affecting market expectations for US military engagements in 2026.
US and Israel conduct coordinated military strikes in Iran
9 plunges to 3%44%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched nearly 900 strikes targeting Iranian missiles, air defenses, military infrastructure, and leadership, marking a major escalation in the Iran conflict. This operation significantly influenced market pricing for US military actions in multiple countries.
US and Israel launch coordinated military strikes on Iran
On February 27-28, 2026, the US and Israel conducted missile and drone strikes on Iranian military targets as part of Operation Epic Fury, marking the start of intensified military action against Iran. This event increased market expectations of US strikes on Iranian soil, influencing the market towards lower numbers of countries targeted.
US authorizes Operation Epic Fury, launching strikes on Iran
15+ plunges to 1%47%
On February 27, 2026, President Trump authorized Operation Epic Fury, leading to US and Israeli missile and drone strikes on Iranian military infrastructure starting February 28. This marked a significant escalation in US military action against Iran, influencing market expectations about the number of countries targeted.
US authorizes Operation Epic Fury, launching strikes on Iran
8 plunges to 0%47%
On February 27, 2026, President Trump authorized Operation Epic Fury, leading to US missile and drone strikes on Iranian targets starting February 28. This marked a significant escalation in US military action against Iran, influencing market expectations for the number of countries targeted.
US AFRICOM conducts airstrikes targeting ISIS-Somalia in Golis Mountains
8 jumps to 16%7%
Between February 22-26 and on February 28, 2026, U.S. Africa Command conducted airstrikes targeting ISIS-Somalia in the Golis Mountains region, Somalia, further intensifying US military operations in Somalia.
U.S. drone strike kills four Al-Qaeda operatives in Marib, Yemen
U.S. drone strike killed four AQAP members in Marib province, Yemen, continuing the U.S. drone campaign against terrorist groups in Yemen during 2026.
US conducts airstrikes against Islamic State militants in Somalia
On February 1, 2026, US forces carried out airstrikes targeting Islamic State-affiliated militants in Somalia, marking US military action on Somali soil as part of counterterrorism operations.
US conducts airstrikes against Islamic State in Somalia
8 plunges to 5%42%
US forces carried out airstrikes targeting Islamic State-affiliated militants in Somalia, expanding counterterrorism operations in Africa and marking Somalia as a country where US military action occurred in 2026.
US Africa Command conducts airstrike targeting al-Shabaab in Somalia
9 rises to 3%2%
On January 29, 2026, US Africa Command, in coordination with the Federal Government of Somalia, conducted an airstrike targeting al-Shabaab militants. This was part of ongoing US counterterrorism operations in Somalia aimed at degrading terrorist capabilities threatening US interests and regional stability.
U.S. drone strike targets Al-Qaeda leaders in eastern Marib, Yemen
8 drops to 35%12%
A U.S. drone strike targeted a meeting of Al-Qaeda leaders in Marib province, Yemen, killing several militants. This continued the U.S. counterterrorism campaign against AQAP in Yemen, confirming ongoing U.S. military action on Yemeni soil.
US conducts airstrike targeting ISIS in Somalia
8 jumps to 23%7%
In coordination with the Federal Government of Somalia, the US Africa Command conducted airstrikes targeting ISIS-Somalia, marking Somalia as another country where the US conducted military strikes in 2026.
Putin offers to mediate Middle East tensions after calls with Israel and Iran
7 drops to 39%7%
Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke with Israeli and Iranian leaders, pitching Russia as a mediator amid regional tensions and U.S. threats of strikes on Iran. This diplomatic move suggested a de-escalation in U.S. military action in the Middle East, reducing market expectations for U.S. strikes on multiple countries.
US AFRICOM conducts airstrikes targeting al-Shabaab in Somalia
8 jumps to 27%12%
U.S. Africa Command conducted airstrikes targeting al-Shabaab militants in Somalia on January 14, 2026, continuing its counterterrorism campaign in the region and reinforcing US military presence in Somalia.
US conducts airstrikes against ISIS targets in Syria
8 jumps to 16%11%
The US and Jordan launched multiple airstrikes against Islamic State targets in Syria, utilizing precision munitions to destroy ISIS infrastructure. This confirmed Syria as a country where the US conducted military strikes in 2026.
US and Jordanian forces conduct second wave of airstrikes on ISIS positions in Syria
On January 10, 2026, US and Jordanian forces launched a second wave of airstrikes on dozens of ISIS positions near Deir ez-Zor, Syria, using over 90 munitions. This was part of an ongoing campaign against ISIS in Syria and Iraq following a December ambush that killed two US soldiers.
US launches Operation Hawkeye Strike targeting ISIS in Syria
9 rises to 4%3%
In response to a December 13, 2025 ambush that killed two US soldiers and a civilian interpreter, the US launched Operation Hawkeye Strike, conducting large-scale airstrikes against over 35 ISIS targets across Syria. The operation involved more than 20 aircraft and over 90 precision munitions, signaling a strong US commitment to counterterrorism in the region.
US launches retaliatory strikes against ISIS in Syria after deadly ambush
In response to an ambush killing US personnel, the US launched airstrikes against ISIS targets in Syria, continuing military operations in the country.
US launches airstrikes on militant camps in Nigeria's Sokoto state
9 rises to 13%3%
The US military conducted airstrikes targeting Lakurawa militant camps in northwestern Nigeria, marking a direct military action on Nigerian soil. This event increased the likelihood of the US conducting strikes in Nigeria, affecting the market's assessment of the number of countries targeted.
US conducts large-scale military strike in Venezuela, captures Maduro
7 drops to 39%7%
The US launched a major military operation in Venezuela, capturing President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, marking a direct US military action on Venezuelan soil. This event confirmed at least one country where the US initiated military strikes in 2026, significantly impacting market probabilities.
US launches military operation extracting Maduro from Venezuela
On January 3, 2026, the US launched a military operation in Venezuela that extracted President Maduro and his wife from Caracas, marking a significant US military action in South America.
US military strikes and captures Venezuelan President Maduro
9 rises to 3%2%
On January 3, 2026, the United States launched a military strike in Venezuela, capturing incumbent President Nicolás Maduro and his wife. The operation marked a significant US military intervention in Venezuela, involving airstrikes and covert operations, and led to Maduro's removal from power and transfer to US custody.
US launches military strike in Venezuela capturing President Maduro
9 drops to 35%12%
On January 3, 2026, the US launched a military strike in Venezuela, capturing incumbent President Nicolás Maduro and his wife. This operation involved bombing infrastructure across northern Venezuela and marked a significant US military action outside the Middle East in 2026, impacting market expectations for the number of countries targeted.
US military strikes Venezuela, capturing President Maduro
8 plunges to 5%42%
The US launched a military strike in Venezuela, capturing incumbent President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, marking a significant military action in South America and expanding US military engagement to Venezuela.
US launches military strike in Venezuela capturing President Maduro
8 plunges to 5%42%
On January 3, 2026, the US launched Operation Absolute Resolve, a military strike in Venezuela that resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife. This marked a significant US military action on foreign soil early in 2026, impacting market expectations for the number of countries targeted.
US AFRICOM conducts airstrikes targeting ISIS-Somalia
8 jumps to 18%13%
In coordination with the Federal Government of Somalia, U.S. Africa Command conducted airstrikes targeting ISIS-Somalia from January 1-3, 2026. This marked the continuation of US counterterrorism operations in Somalia, impacting market expectations for US military action in Somalia.
U.S. drone strike hits Venezuelan vessel in Caribbean
8 rises to 5%4%
The U.S. carried out a drone strike on a vessel tied to the Venezuelan drug‑trafficking network in the Caribbean. This was the first U.S. aerial strike on Venezuelan soil in 2026, adding Venezuela to the list of countries hit by U.S. drone or missile attacks and pushing the market outlook toward a higher country count.
US Africa Command launches airstrikes in Nigeria targeting Islamic State militants
9 plunges to 3%44%
On Christmas night 2025, the US Africa Command conducted airstrikes in Sokoto State, Nigeria, targeting Islamic State terrorists. This marked the first American combat action inside Nigeria and was acknowledged as a significant escalation in US military involvement there.
US launches airstrikes against ISIS militants in Nigeria
9 drops to 35%12%
On Christmas Day 2025, the US military, in coordination with Nigerian forces, launched airstrikes targeting Islamic State militants in northwest Nigeria, marking a new phase in US counterterrorism efforts in Africa. This operation was publicly described by President Trump as a powerful strike against ISIS terrorists, signaling increased US military involvement in Nigeria.
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