Trader consensus on no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by end of 2026 reflects the brief remaining window and absence of mobilization signals for a large-scale amphibious operation. Beijing has sustained gray-zone pressure through near-daily PLA aircraft sorties, naval transits including the carrier Fujian, and coast guard patrols east of the island, while Taiwan has responded with heightened combat readiness drills and record defense spending proposals. Recent PLA leadership purges have further complicated command structures needed for complex cross-strait landings. These patterns align with a strategy of incremental coercion rather than immediate force. A rapid shift could still occur if Taipei declares formal independence, Washington extends diplomatic recognition, or Beijing perceives an imminent loss of unification pathways, though such triggers remain improbable before year-end.