Traders assign a 90.5% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2027, reflecting sustained cross-strait gray-zone coercion rather than the large-scale amphibious and logistical buildup required for a full offensive. Beijing continues military modernization and exercises—including carrier transits and maritime enforcement operations—while prioritizing political influence ahead of Taiwan’s 2028 elections and managing domestic economic constraints. Taiwanese defensive drills, U.S. alliance signaling, and arms support reinforce deterrence without triggering escalation. Analysts note the absence of imminent invasion indicators despite longstanding 2027 modernization benchmarks, with traders viewing the high costs and operational risks of opposed landings as significant barriers absent major shifts in U.S. policy or Taiwanese actions.