Zhang Youxia, vice chairman of China’s Central Military Commission, was placed under formal investigation in January 2026 for suspected serious violations of discipline and law, including corruption, failure to control associates, and political disloyalty. The probe forms part of a wider PLA leadership purge under Xi Jinping but has produced no reported trial, conviction, or sentencing by early August 2026, six months later. In China’s system, such cases often involve extended internal party processes, possible expulsion from the CCP, or non-custodial outcomes rather than swift public court sentencing. Traders assign an 88.5% probability to no prison sentence before 2027, reflecting the slow pace of high-level disciplinary actions and the absence of any announced court proceedings within the remaining timeline.