Zhang Youxia’s January 2026 removal from the Central Military Commission and placement under investigation for serious disciplinary and legal violations, widely understood as corruption-related offenses, triggered the market. As of August 2026, state media and official announcements have confirmed the probe and cited issues such as political cliques and breaches of discipline, consistent with prior high-level PLA cases that progressed to formal charges only after extended internal reviews. Comparable figures, including former defense ministers, received suspended death sentences months after initial announcements, illustrating the deliberate pace of military judicial processes under party oversight. Traders assign an 88.5% probability to “No” because these procedures rarely yield public prison sentences within a single calendar year, particularly for a former first-ranked vice chairman, absent accelerated public trials or extraordinary escalations. No confirmed court dates or verdicts have emerged in the six months since the announcement.