Putin’s 2024 reelection to a six-year term and the 2020 constitutional amendments that reset term limits have established a clear legal path for him to remain president through 2030. Traders assign the “No” outcome a 90.5% implied probability because the president continues to exercise direct authority through regular public engagements, Security Council meetings, and policy announcements into 2026 with no visible signs of voluntary resignation, incapacitation, or elite-driven removal. The regime’s centralized control over security services and regional elites, combined with the absence of a designated successor, reduces near-term transition risks, while ongoing military operations in Ukraine have not produced the internal shocks that historically precede leadership changes in similar systems. Late-breaking health events or sudden elite fractures remain the primary variables that could still shift these odds before the December 31, 2026 resolution date.