The Trump administration's October 2025 directive to evaluate resuming underground nuclear explosive testing at the Nevada National Security Site—citing U.S. intelligence on alleged low-yield tests by Russia and China—remains the pivotal catalyst, but no detonation has occurred since the 1992 moratorium. A senior State Department official testified in late March 2026 that assessments continue without ruling out resumption, while Nevada Senator Jacky Rosen visited the site April 14 to voice opposition over environmental risks and proliferation dangers. Trader consensus implies modest odds (1% by June 30, 9% by September 30, 14% by December 31), reflecting preparation timelines of 24-36 months per experts, potential congressional funding hurdles, and Russian vows to match any U.S. test, with DOE budget deliberations ahead.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाअमेरिका द्वारा परमाणु परीक्षण...?
अमेरिका द्वारा परमाणु परीक्षण...?
$638,252 वॉल्यूम
30 जून, 2026
30 जून, 2026
1%
30 सितंबर, 2026
8%
31 दिसंबर, 2026
14%
$638,252 वॉल्यूम
30 जून, 2026
$23,084 वॉल्यूम
1%
30 सितंबर, 2026
$2,096 वॉल्यूम
8%
31 दिसंबर, 2026
$2,853 वॉल्यूम
14%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The Trump administration's October 2025 directive to evaluate resuming underground nuclear explosive testing at the Nevada National Security Site—citing U.S. intelligence on alleged low-yield tests by Russia and China—remains the pivotal catalyst, but no detonation has occurred since the 1992 moratorium. A senior State Department official testified in late March 2026 that assessments continue without ruling out resumption, while Nevada Senator Jacky Rosen visited the site April 14 to voice opposition over environmental risks and proliferation dangers. Trader consensus implies modest odds (1% by June 30, 9% by September 30, 14% by December 31), reflecting preparation timelines of 24-36 months per experts, potential congressional funding hurdles, and Russian vows to match any U.S. test, with DOE budget deliberations ahead.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$638,252समाप्ति तिथि
31 मार्च, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The Trump administration's October 2025 directive to evaluate resuming underground nuclear explosive testing at the Nevada National Security Site—citing U.S. intelligence on alleged low-yield tests by Russia and China—remains the pivotal catalyst, but no detonation has occurred since the 1992 moratorium. A senior State Department official testified in late March 2026 that assessments continue without ruling out resumption, while Nevada Senator Jacky Rosen visited the site April 14 to voice opposition over environmental risks and proliferation dangers. Trader consensus implies modest odds (1% by June 30, 9% by September 30, 14% by December 31), reflecting preparation timelines of 24-36 months per experts, potential congressional funding hurdles, and Russian vows to match any U.S. test, with DOE budget deliberations ahead.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$638,252समाप्ति तिथि
31 मार्च, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Trump administration's October 2025 directive to evaluate resuming underground nuclear explosive testing at the Nevada National Security Site—citing U.S. intelligence on alleged low-yield tests by Russia and China—remains the pivotal catalyst, but no detonation has occurred since the 1992 moratorium. A senior State Department official testified in late March 2026 that assessments continue without ruling out resumption, while Nevada Senator Jacky Rosen visited the site April 14 to voice opposition over environmental risks and proliferation dangers. Trader consensus implies modest odds (1% by June 30, 9% by September 30, 14% by December 31), reflecting preparation timelines of 24-36 months per experts, potential congressional funding hurdles, and Russian vows to match any U.S. test, with DOE budget deliberations ahead.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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