Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 97.5% implied probability for Ukraine recapturing any Crimean territory by June 30, driven by the peninsula's entrenched Russian occupation, heavy fortifications, and role as a key Black Sea Fleet base, unchanged amid the ongoing conflict. Institute for the Study of War maps through mid-April 2026 show no Ukrainian ground advances toward Crimea, with Russian forces instead making incremental gains in Donetsk directions like Pokrovsk and north of Bakhmut, straining Ukrainian defenses and resources. While Ukrainian long-range drone strikes have recently targeted Crimean air defenses, oil terminals, and logistics, these inflict damage without achieving territorial control. Scenarios like a sudden southern breakthrough, mass Russian withdrawal, or diplomatic concession could alter odds, though current military dynamics and timelines render them improbable.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाक्या यूक्रेन 30 जून, 2026 तक क्रीमियाई क्षेत्र पर फिर से कब्जा कर लेगा?
क्या यूक्रेन 30 जून, 2026 तक क्रीमियाई क्षेत्र पर फिर से कब्जा कर लेगा?
हाँ
$61,131 वॉल्यूम
$61,131 वॉल्यूम
30 जून, 2026
हाँ
$61,131 वॉल्यूम
$61,131 वॉल्यूम
30 जून, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 97.5% implied probability for Ukraine recapturing any Crimean territory by June 30, driven by the peninsula's entrenched Russian occupation, heavy fortifications, and role as a key Black Sea Fleet base, unchanged amid the ongoing conflict. Institute for the Study of War maps through mid-April 2026 show no Ukrainian ground advances toward Crimea, with Russian forces instead making incremental gains in Donetsk directions like Pokrovsk and north of Bakhmut, straining Ukrainian defenses and resources. While Ukrainian long-range drone strikes have recently targeted Crimean air defenses, oil terminals, and logistics, these inflict damage without achieving territorial control. Scenarios like a sudden southern breakthrough, mass Russian withdrawal, or diplomatic concession could alter odds, though current military dynamics and timelines render them improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
बाज़ार खुला: Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$61,131समाप्ति तिथि
30 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 97.5% implied probability for Ukraine recapturing any Crimean territory by June 30, driven by the peninsula's entrenched Russian occupation, heavy fortifications, and role as a key Black Sea Fleet base, unchanged amid the ongoing conflict. Institute for the Study of War maps through mid-April 2026 show no Ukrainian ground advances toward Crimea, with Russian forces instead making incremental gains in Donetsk directions like Pokrovsk and north of Bakhmut, straining Ukrainian defenses and resources. While Ukrainian long-range drone strikes have recently targeted Crimean air defenses, oil terminals, and logistics, these inflict damage without achieving territorial control. Scenarios like a sudden southern breakthrough, mass Russian withdrawal, or diplomatic concession could alter odds, though current military dynamics and timelines render them improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
वॉल्यूम
$61,131समाप्ति तिथि
30 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 97.5% implied probability for Ukraine recapturing any Crimean territory by June 30, driven by the peninsula's entrenched Russian occupation, heavy fortifications, and role as a key Black Sea Fleet base, unchanged amid the ongoing conflict. Institute for the Study of War maps through mid-April 2026 show no Ukrainian ground advances toward Crimea, with Russian forces instead making incremental gains in Donetsk directions like Pokrovsk and north of Bakhmut, straining Ukrainian defenses and resources. While Ukrainian long-range drone strikes have recently targeted Crimean air defenses, oil terminals, and logistics, these inflict damage without achieving territorial control. Scenarios like a sudden southern breakthrough, mass Russian withdrawal, or diplomatic concession could alter odds, though current military dynamics and timelines render them improbable.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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