Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 targeted key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with weaponization-related facilities including Parchin and Taleghan, substantially degrading Tehran's enrichment and device-development infrastructure. U.S. intelligence assessments from early 2026 place Iran roughly nine to twelve months from producing a nuclear weapon if it chose to pursue that path, with no verified resumption of high-level enrichment or weaponization activities since the strikes. IAEA reporting notes restricted inspector access and a substantial near-weapons-grade uranium stockpile remaining inaccessible or under rubble, while Iran has stated it has no plan to recover the material. These setbacks, combined with sustained international pressure and risks of further military action, underpin trader consensus against an explosive nuclear test occurring before the end of 2026.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2027 से पहले ईरान का परमाणु परीक्षण?
2027 से पहले ईरान का परमाणु परीक्षण?
हाँ
$199,521 वॉल्यूम
$199,521 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
$199,521 वॉल्यूम
$199,521 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 targeted key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with weaponization-related facilities including Parchin and Taleghan, substantially degrading Tehran's enrichment and device-development infrastructure. U.S. intelligence assessments from early 2026 place Iran roughly nine to twelve months from producing a nuclear weapon if it chose to pursue that path, with no verified resumption of high-level enrichment or weaponization activities since the strikes. IAEA reporting notes restricted inspector access and a substantial near-weapons-grade uranium stockpile remaining inaccessible or under rubble, while Iran has stated it has no plan to recover the material. These setbacks, combined with sustained international pressure and risks of further military action, underpin trader consensus against an explosive nuclear test occurring before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$199,521समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 targeted key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with weaponization-related facilities including Parchin and Taleghan, substantially degrading Tehran's enrichment and device-development infrastructure. U.S. intelligence assessments from early 2026 place Iran roughly nine to twelve months from producing a nuclear weapon if it chose to pursue that path, with no verified resumption of high-level enrichment or weaponization activities since the strikes. IAEA reporting notes restricted inspector access and a substantial near-weapons-grade uranium stockpile remaining inaccessible or under rubble, while Iran has stated it has no plan to recover the material. These setbacks, combined with sustained international pressure and risks of further military action, underpin trader consensus against an explosive nuclear test occurring before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$199,521समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 targeted key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with weaponization-related facilities including Parchin and Taleghan, substantially degrading Tehran's enrichment and device-development infrastructure. U.S. intelligence assessments from early 2026 place Iran roughly nine to twelve months from producing a nuclear weapon if it chose to pursue that path, with no verified resumption of high-level enrichment or weaponization activities since the strikes. IAEA reporting notes restricted inspector access and a substantial near-weapons-grade uranium stockpile remaining inaccessible or under rubble, while Iran has stated it has no plan to recover the material. These setbacks, combined with sustained international pressure and risks of further military action, underpin trader consensus against an explosive nuclear test occurring before the end of 2026.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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