Iran’s nuclear facilities sustained significant damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving key enrichment sites such as Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan with backfilled tunnels and restricted access. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding sought to maintain the status quo on enrichment and material stockpiles, though satellite imagery has since shown limited reconstruction activity at sites like Pickaxe Mountain and Parchin. IAEA reports highlight unresolved verification gaps for hundreds of kilograms of near-weapons-grade uranium and curtailed inspector access, while Iran continues to affirm peaceful nuclear intentions under the NPT. These constraints, combined with ongoing diplomatic pressure and the short window remaining before 2027, underpin trader consensus against a nuclear test in the near term.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2027 से पहले ईरान का परमाणु परीक्षण?
2027 से पहले ईरान का परमाणु परीक्षण?
हाँ
6% संभावना
$251,510 वॉल्यूम
$251,510 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
6% संभावना
$251,510 वॉल्यूम
$251,510 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s nuclear facilities sustained significant damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving key enrichment sites such as Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan with backfilled tunnels and restricted access. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding sought to maintain the status quo on enrichment and material stockpiles, though satellite imagery has since shown limited reconstruction activity at sites like Pickaxe Mountain and Parchin. IAEA reports highlight unresolved verification gaps for hundreds of kilograms of near-weapons-grade uranium and curtailed inspector access, while Iran continues to affirm peaceful nuclear intentions under the NPT. These constraints, combined with ongoing diplomatic pressure and the short window remaining before 2027, underpin trader consensus against a nuclear test in the near term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$251,510समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s nuclear facilities sustained significant damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving key enrichment sites such as Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan with backfilled tunnels and restricted access. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding sought to maintain the status quo on enrichment and material stockpiles, though satellite imagery has since shown limited reconstruction activity at sites like Pickaxe Mountain and Parchin. IAEA reports highlight unresolved verification gaps for hundreds of kilograms of near-weapons-grade uranium and curtailed inspector access, while Iran continues to affirm peaceful nuclear intentions under the NPT. These constraints, combined with ongoing diplomatic pressure and the short window remaining before 2027, underpin trader consensus against a nuclear test in the near term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$251,510समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...Iran’s nuclear facilities sustained significant damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving key enrichment sites such as Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan with backfilled tunnels and restricted access. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding sought to maintain the status quo on enrichment and material stockpiles, though satellite imagery has since shown limited reconstruction activity at sites like Pickaxe Mountain and Parchin. IAEA reports highlight unresolved verification gaps for hundreds of kilograms of near-weapons-grade uranium and curtailed inspector access, while Iran continues to affirm peaceful nuclear intentions under the NPT. These constraints, combined with ongoing diplomatic pressure and the short window remaining before 2027, underpin trader consensus against a nuclear test in the near term.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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