Recent U.S. and Israeli military strikes in June 2025 and February–April 2026 severely damaged or destroyed Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with multiple weaponization-related sites, leaving much of its pre-strike stockpile of 60% enriched uranium under rubble and inaccessible to IAEA verification. Iran has denied resuming large-scale enrichment or weaponization activities, while a June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding reaffirmed commitments against nuclear weapons development amid ongoing diplomatic engagement. Satellite imagery shows limited construction at deeply buried sites such as Pickaxe Mountain, yet no public evidence indicates rapid reconstitution of test-capable infrastructure or a decision to conduct an explosive test. These verified setbacks and monitoring gaps sustain trader consensus that a nuclear test remains improbable before 2027.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2027 से पहले ईरान का परमाणु परीक्षण?
2027 से पहले ईरान का परमाणु परीक्षण?
हाँ
6% संभावना
$251,525 वॉल्यूम
$251,525 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
6% संभावना
$251,525 वॉल्यूम
$251,525 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli military strikes in June 2025 and February–April 2026 severely damaged or destroyed Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with multiple weaponization-related sites, leaving much of its pre-strike stockpile of 60% enriched uranium under rubble and inaccessible to IAEA verification. Iran has denied resuming large-scale enrichment or weaponization activities, while a June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding reaffirmed commitments against nuclear weapons development amid ongoing diplomatic engagement. Satellite imagery shows limited construction at deeply buried sites such as Pickaxe Mountain, yet no public evidence indicates rapid reconstitution of test-capable infrastructure or a decision to conduct an explosive test. These verified setbacks and monitoring gaps sustain trader consensus that a nuclear test remains improbable before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$251,525समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli military strikes in June 2025 and February–April 2026 severely damaged or destroyed Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with multiple weaponization-related sites, leaving much of its pre-strike stockpile of 60% enriched uranium under rubble and inaccessible to IAEA verification. Iran has denied resuming large-scale enrichment or weaponization activities, while a June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding reaffirmed commitments against nuclear weapons development amid ongoing diplomatic engagement. Satellite imagery shows limited construction at deeply buried sites such as Pickaxe Mountain, yet no public evidence indicates rapid reconstitution of test-capable infrastructure or a decision to conduct an explosive test. These verified setbacks and monitoring gaps sustain trader consensus that a nuclear test remains improbable before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$251,525समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli military strikes in June 2025 and February–April 2026 severely damaged or destroyed Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with multiple weaponization-related sites, leaving much of its pre-strike stockpile of 60% enriched uranium under rubble and inaccessible to IAEA verification. Iran has denied resuming large-scale enrichment or weaponization activities, while a June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding reaffirmed commitments against nuclear weapons development amid ongoing diplomatic engagement. Satellite imagery shows limited construction at deeply buried sites such as Pickaxe Mountain, yet no public evidence indicates rapid reconstitution of test-capable infrastructure or a decision to conduct an explosive test. These verified setbacks and monitoring gaps sustain trader consensus that a nuclear test remains improbable before 2027.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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