Recent US and Israeli military strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, leaving the program largely dormant with hundreds of kilograms of 60% enriched uranium buried under rubble and unaccounted for by the IAEA. Negotiations under a June 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding have focused on IAEA verification, on-site down-blending of highly enriched uranium, and sanctions relief, though progress has stalled amid disputes over access to bombed sites. Traders assign 95% probability to no nuclear weapon before 2027 due to these setbacks, Iran's public denials of weaponization intent, and expert assessments that further enrichment to weapons-grade levels plus assembly would require detectable steps over months or years. Potential shifts include a collapse in talks triggering renewed escalation, undetected centrifuge transfers to sites like Pickaxe Mountain, or a rapid Iranian breakout decision.