Trader consensus prices a 93.5% probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting de-escalatory diplomatic signals and assessments of Beijing's limited military readiness. On April 10, Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang chairwoman Cheng Li-wun met Xi Jinping in Beijing on a self-described peace mission, prompting China to resume suspended ties like direct flights and Taiwanese imports by April 12. This follows a March U.S. intelligence assessment dialing back invasion risks through 2027, citing Xi's military purges that have hampered PLA coordination for complex amphibious operations. Ongoing gray-zone tactics like ADIZ incursions persist, but strong U.S. deterrence, Taiwan's defenses, and economic costs reinforce trader views of sustained coercion over outright war absent major catalysts.