Traders assign a 98.7% probability that China will not invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of large-scale amphibious preparations, troop mobilizations, or direct escalations in recent months. U.S. intelligence assessments, including the March 2026 ODNI report, indicate Beijing lacks a fixed timeline for unification by force and continues to prioritize coercive measures short of war, such as military exercises around the island and economic pressure. Diplomatic contacts, including April 2026 meetings between Chinese officials and Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang, have reinforced signals of stability. With the resolution window closing in under two months, only abrupt developments—such as a sudden cross-strait incident, major shifts in U.S. arms policy, or accelerated PLA movements—could realistically alter the current trader consensus.