Traders assign overwhelming probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting U.S. intelligence assessments that Beijing lacks a fixed timeline for unification by force and continues prioritizing short-of-war coercion through diplomatic, informational, and economic pressure alongside routine military activity. Recent months have featured sustained PLA exercises simulating blockades, expanded China Coast Guard patrols east of Taiwan, and maritime research operations, yet these fall short of the visible troop mobilization, logistics buildup, or command changes required for a full amphibious assault. High economic and military risks, combined with the absence of imminent indicators in open-source reporting, underpin the strong market consensus, though rapid shifts in cross-strait incidents or external policy signals could still introduce limited uncertainty before the resolution date.