Traders assign a 98.8% probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of visible large-scale mobilization, amphibious rehearsals, or sustained military buildup in the Taiwan Strait over the past month. Routine People’s Liberation Army aircraft incursions, coast guard patrols, and naval transits continue at levels consistent with gray-zone pressure rather than imminent conflict, while Taiwan has conducted defensive drills without triggering acute escalation. An invasion within this narrow window would require extensive logistical preparation unlikely to evade detection, consistent with historical patterns of cross-strait dynamics. Potential triggers such as a major diplomatic incident or miscalculation remain low-probability events that would still face significant operational barriers before September 30.