Traders assign near-certainty to no invasion by September 30, 2026, because Chinese military activity around Taiwan remains focused on normalized gray-zone pressure—frequent air incursions, joint combat readiness patrols, and coast guard operations—rather than the large-scale mobilization, logistics buildup, or diplomatic rupture required for amphibious assault. Recent exercises through mid-2026 rehearsed blockades and strikes yet stayed below thresholds that would signal imminent conflict, consistent with Beijing’s pattern of calibrated coercion. Economic interdependence, alliance deterrence, and domestic priorities continue to raise the costs of full-scale action. Sudden escalation from miscalculation or unforeseen leadership decisions remains the primary pathway that could still shift probabilities.