Skip to main content
icon for क्या चीन 30 सितंबर, 2026 तक ताइवान पर आक्रमण करेगा?

क्या चीन 30 सितंबर, 2026 तक ताइवान पर आक्रमण करेगा?

icon for क्या चीन 30 सितंबर, 2026 तक ताइवान पर आक्रमण करेगा?

क्या चीन 30 सितंबर, 2026 तक ताइवान पर आक्रमण करेगा?

हाँ

1% संभावना
Polymarket

$1,788,040 वॉल्यूम

हाँ

1% संभावना
Polymarket

$1,788,040 वॉल्यूम

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 98.8% probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the lack of large-scale PLA amphibious mobilization, sustained logistical preparations, or escalatory leadership signals in recent months. Beijing continues to emphasize gray-zone pressure through normalized aircraft incursions and naval transits while prioritizing military modernization amid domestic economic constraints and high projected costs of conflict. U.S. arms commitments, allied naval presence, and Taiwanese defensive measures reinforce cross-strait deterrence without triggering acute crisis thresholds. Assessments from U.S. intelligence and analysts indicate a continued preference for unification short of force through the near term. Late developments capable of altering the outcome remain limited to rapid miscalculations during exercises, unforeseen Taiwanese policy shifts, or abrupt changes in U.S. posture, though none appear imminent within the resolution window.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$1,788,040
समाप्ति तिथि
30 सित, 2026
बाज़ार खुला
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 98.8% probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the lack of large-scale PLA amphibious mobilization, sustained logistical preparations, or escalatory leadership signals in recent months. Beijing continues to emphasize gray-zone pressure through normalized aircraft incursions and naval transits while prioritizing military modernization amid domestic economic constraints and high projected costs of conflict. U.S. arms commitments, allied naval presence, and Taiwanese defensive measures reinforce cross-strait deterrence without triggering acute crisis thresholds. Assessments from U.S. intelligence and analysts indicate a continued preference for unification short of force through the near term. Late developments capable of altering the outcome remain limited to rapid miscalculations during exercises, unforeseen Taiwanese policy shifts, or abrupt changes in U.S. posture, though none appear imminent within the resolution window.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$1,788,040
समाप्ति तिथि
30 सित, 2026
बाज़ार खुला
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।

अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न

"क्या चीन 30 सितंबर, 2026 तक ताइवान पर आक्रमण करेगा?" Polymarket पर 2 संभावित परिणामों वाला एक प्रेडिक्शन मार्केट है। वर्तमान में, क्या चीन 30 सितंबर, 2026 तक ताइवान पर आक्रमण करेगा? 1% (1¢¢ प्रति शेयर) की implied probability के साथ आगे है।

आज तक, "क्या चीन 30 सितंबर, 2026 तक ताइवान पर आक्रमण करेगा?" ने कुल $1.8 million ट्रेडिंग वॉल्यूम उत्पन्न किया है जब से बाज़ार Mar 17, 2026 को लॉन्च हुआ। ट्रेडिंग गतिविधि का यह स्तर Polymarket समुदाय से मज़बूत जुड़ाव दर्शाता है और यह सुनिश्चित करने में मदद करता है कि वर्तमान संभावनाएँ बाज़ार प्रतिभागियों के गहरे पूल से सूचित हैं। आप इस पेज पर सीधे लाइव मूल्य गतिविधियाँ ट्रैक कर सकते हैं और किसी भी परिणाम पर ट्रेड कर सकते हैं।

"क्या चीन 30 सितंबर, 2026 तक ताइवान पर आक्रमण करेगा?" पर ट्रेड करने के लिए, इस पेज पर सूचीबद्ध 2 उपलब्ध परिणाम ब्राउज़ करें। प्रत्येक परिणाम बाज़ार की निहित संभावना को दर्शाने वाली वर्तमान कीमत प्रदर्शित करता है। पोजीशन लेने के लिए, वह परिणाम चुनें जो आपको सबसे संभावित लगता है, उसके पक्ष में ट्रेड करने के लिए "हाँ" या विरुद्ध ट्रेड करने के लिए "नहीं" चुनें, अपनी राशि दर्ज करें, और "ट्रेड" पर क्लिक करें।

यह एक खुला बाज़ार है। "क्या चीन 30 सितंबर, 2026 तक ताइवान पर आक्रमण करेगा?" के लिए वर्तमान अग्रणी "क्या चीन 30 सितंबर, 2026 तक ताइवान पर आक्रमण करेगा?" केवल 1% पर है। किसी भी परिणाम के पास मज़बूत बहुमत नहीं होने से, ट्रेडर इसे अत्यधिक अनिश्चित मानते हैं।

"क्या चीन 30 सितंबर, 2026 तक ताइवान पर आक्रमण करेगा?" के समाधान नियम ठीक-ठीक परिभाषित करते हैं कि प्रत्येक परिणाम को विजेता घोषित करने के लिए क्या होना चाहिए — जिसमें परिणाम निर्धारित करने के लिए उपयोग किए गए आधिकारिक डेटा स्रोत शामिल हैं। आप इस पेज पर टिप्पणियों के ऊपर "नियम" अनुभाग में पूर्ण समाधान मानदंड की समीक्षा कर सकते हैं।