**Strong US regulatory and political barriers, rooted in national security concerns, are the main driver behind the 82.5% market-implied probability against Apple purchasing CXMT memory chips in 2026.** CXMT, China’s leading DRAM maker, sits on the Pentagon’s 1260H list of firms with alleged military ties, creating reputational and contracting risks even though purchases are not currently prohibited. In June 2026 Apple began lobbying the Trump administration for assurances that CXMT would avoid the stricter Commerce Department Entity List, amid AI-driven DRAM shortages that forced product price hikes, and has started testing the chips for China-market devices. However, congressional opposition, shifting US-China trade dynamics, and CXMT’s near-full capacity bookings through 2027 have kept any deal speculative. Key near-term catalysts include potential Entity List decisions, trade talks, and Apple’s supply-chain updates.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाहाँ
17% संभावना
$22,370 वॉल्यूम
$22,370 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
17% संभावना
$22,370 वॉल्यूम
$22,370 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Strong US regulatory and political barriers, rooted in national security concerns, are the main driver behind the 82.5% market-implied probability against Apple purchasing CXMT memory chips in 2026.** CXMT, China’s leading DRAM maker, sits on the Pentagon’s 1260H list of firms with alleged military ties, creating reputational and contracting risks even though purchases are not currently prohibited. In June 2026 Apple began lobbying the Trump administration for assurances that CXMT would avoid the stricter Commerce Department Entity List, amid AI-driven DRAM shortages that forced product price hikes, and has started testing the chips for China-market devices. However, congressional opposition, shifting US-China trade dynamics, and CXMT’s near-full capacity bookings through 2027 have kept any deal speculative. Key near-term catalysts include potential Entity List decisions, trade talks, and Apple’s supply-chain updates.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$22,370समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Strong US regulatory and political barriers, rooted in national security concerns, are the main driver behind the 82.5% market-implied probability against Apple purchasing CXMT memory chips in 2026.** CXMT, China’s leading DRAM maker, sits on the Pentagon’s 1260H list of firms with alleged military ties, creating reputational and contracting risks even though purchases are not currently prohibited. In June 2026 Apple began lobbying the Trump administration for assurances that CXMT would avoid the stricter Commerce Department Entity List, amid AI-driven DRAM shortages that forced product price hikes, and has started testing the chips for China-market devices. However, congressional opposition, shifting US-China trade dynamics, and CXMT’s near-full capacity bookings through 2027 have kept any deal speculative. Key near-term catalysts include potential Entity List decisions, trade talks, and Apple’s supply-chain updates.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$22,370समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...**Strong US regulatory and political barriers, rooted in national security concerns, are the main driver behind the 82.5% market-implied probability against Apple purchasing CXMT memory chips in 2026.** CXMT, China’s leading DRAM maker, sits on the Pentagon’s 1260H list of firms with alleged military ties, creating reputational and contracting risks even though purchases are not currently prohibited. In June 2026 Apple began lobbying the Trump administration for assurances that CXMT would avoid the stricter Commerce Department Entity List, amid AI-driven DRAM shortages that forced product price hikes, and has started testing the chips for China-market devices. However, congressional opposition, shifting US-China trade dynamics, and CXMT’s near-full capacity bookings through 2027 have kept any deal speculative. Key near-term catalysts include potential Entity List decisions, trade talks, and Apple’s supply-chain updates.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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