Meta's rapid iteration on the Muse Spark series—1.1 in July, 1.2 in August, and 1.3 on September 2—drives the clustered late-October odds for a 1.4+ release, reflecting Meta Superintelligence Labs' focus on coding and agentic gains amid competition with OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google. Mark Zuckerberg's recent tease of the larger "Watermelon" model and open-weights plans signals continued momentum, while the tight probabilities around October 21–29 highlight uncertainty over exact timing amid ongoing safety testing and integration work. Traders weigh Meta's predictable scaling cadence against potential delays from regulatory scrutiny or resource shifts toward bigger systems. Key near-term catalysts include developer API updates and any earnings commentary on roadmap progress.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया3 अक्टूबर 26%
4 अक्टूबर 26%
7 अक्टूबर 26%
11 अक्टूबर 26%
नया
नया
1 अक्टू, 2026
1 अक्टूबर या उससे पहले
13%
2 अक्टूबर
14%
3 अक्टूबर
26%
4 अक्टूबर
26%
5 अक्टूबर
25%
6 अक्टूबर
14%
7 अक्टूबर
26%
8 अक्टूबर
25%
9 अक्टूबर
25%
10 अक्टूबर
25%
11 अक्टूबर
26%
12 अक्टूबर
26%
13 अक्टूबर
14%
14 अक्टूबर
14%
15 अक्टूबर
25%
16 अक्टूबर
14%
17 अक्टूबर
26%
18 अक्टूबर
14%
19 अक्टूबर
26%
20 अक्टूबर
25%
21 अक्टूबर
24%
22 अक्टूबर
26%
23 अक्टूबर
13%
24 अक्टूबर
26%
25 अक्टूबर
24%
26 अक्टूबर
25%
27 अक्टूबर
25%
28 अक्टूबर
25%
29 अक्टूबर
25%
30 अक्टूबर
25%
31 अक्टूबर
24%
31 अक्टूबर तक कोई रिलीज़ नहीं
14%
3 अक्टूबर 26%
4 अक्टूबर 26%
7 अक्टूबर 26%
11 अक्टूबर 26%
नया
नया
1 अक्टू, 2026
1 अक्टूबर या उससे पहले
$0 वॉल्यूम
13%
2 अक्टूबर
$0 वॉल्यूम
14%
3 अक्टूबर
$0 वॉल्यूम
26%
4 अक्टूबर
$0 वॉल्यूम
26%
5 अक्टूबर
$0 वॉल्यूम
25%
6 अक्टूबर
$0 वॉल्यूम
14%
7 अक्टूबर
$0 वॉल्यूम
26%
8 अक्टूबर
$0 वॉल्यूम
25%
9 अक्टूबर
$0 वॉल्यूम
25%
10 अक्टूबर
$0 वॉल्यूम
25%
11 अक्टूबर
$0 वॉल्यूम
26%
12 अक्टूबर
$0 वॉल्यूम
26%
13 अक्टूबर
$0 वॉल्यूम
14%
14 अक्टूबर
$0 वॉल्यूम
14%
15 अक्टूबर
$0 वॉल्यूम
25%
16 अक्टूबर
$0 वॉल्यूम
14%
17 अक्टूबर
$0 वॉल्यूम
26%
18 अक्टूबर
$0 वॉल्यूम
14%
19 अक्टूबर
$0 वॉल्यूम
26%
20 अक्टूबर
$0 वॉल्यूम
25%
21 अक्टूबर
$0 वॉल्यूम
24%
22 अक्टूबर
$0 वॉल्यूम
26%
23 अक्टूबर
$0 वॉल्यूम
13%
24 अक्टूबर
$0 वॉल्यूम
26%
25 अक्टूबर
$0 वॉल्यूम
24%
26 अक्टूबर
$0 वॉल्यूम
25%
27 अक्टूबर
$0 वॉल्यूम
25%
28 अक्टूबर
$0 वॉल्यूम
25%
29 अक्टूबर
$0 वॉल्यूम
25%
30 अक्टूबर
$0 वॉल्यूम
25%
31 अक्टूबर
$0 वॉल्यूम
24%
31 अक्टूबर तक कोई रिलीज़ नहीं
$0 वॉल्यूम
14%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta's rapid iteration on the Muse Spark series—1.1 in July, 1.2 in August, and 1.3 on September 2—drives the clustered late-October odds for a 1.4+ release, reflecting Meta Superintelligence Labs' focus on coding and agentic gains amid competition with OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google. Mark Zuckerberg's recent tease of the larger "Watermelon" model and open-weights plans signals continued momentum, while the tight probabilities around October 21–29 highlight uncertainty over exact timing amid ongoing safety testing and integration work. Traders weigh Meta's predictable scaling cadence against potential delays from regulatory scrutiny or resource shifts toward bigger systems. Key near-term catalysts include developer API updates and any earnings commentary on roadmap progress.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Sep 22, 2026, 7:55 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$0समाप्ति तिथि
31 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 22, 2026, 7:55 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta's rapid iteration on the Muse Spark series—1.1 in July, 1.2 in August, and 1.3 on September 2—drives the clustered late-October odds for a 1.4+ release, reflecting Meta Superintelligence Labs' focus on coding and agentic gains amid competition with OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google. Mark Zuckerberg's recent tease of the larger "Watermelon" model and open-weights plans signals continued momentum, while the tight probabilities around October 21–29 highlight uncertainty over exact timing amid ongoing safety testing and integration work. Traders weigh Meta's predictable scaling cadence against potential delays from regulatory scrutiny or resource shifts toward bigger systems. Key near-term catalysts include developer API updates and any earnings commentary on roadmap progress.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$0समाप्ति तिथि
31 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 22, 2026, 7:55 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...Meta's rapid iteration on the Muse Spark series—1.1 in July, 1.2 in August, and 1.3 on September 2—drives the clustered late-October odds for a 1.4+ release, reflecting Meta Superintelligence Labs' focus on coding and agentic gains amid competition with OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google. Mark Zuckerberg's recent tease of the larger "Watermelon" model and open-weights plans signals continued momentum, while the tight probabilities around October 21–29 highlight uncertainty over exact timing amid ongoing safety testing and integration work. Traders weigh Meta's predictable scaling cadence against potential delays from regulatory scrutiny or resource shifts toward bigger systems. Key near-term catalysts include developer API updates and any earnings commentary on roadmap progress.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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