China’s official 2026 growth target of 4.5–5.0% continues to anchor trader expectations, reinforced by first-half results showing 4.7% expansion overall, with Q1 at 5.0% and Q2 easing to 4.3%. Major forecasters including the OECD, ADB, and Reuters polls project full-year outcomes clustered between 4.5% and 4.7%, citing sustained manufacturing and export strength alongside infrastructure investment that offsets persistent weakness in consumption and the property sector. Limited additional stimulus measures and ongoing structural imbalances have kept projections stable within the narrow band, while geopolitical uncertainties introduce downside risks without shifting the central consensus. This alignment explains the dominant 4.0–5.0% probability.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया4.0–5.0% 87%
5.0–6.0% 11.3%
3.0–4.0% 1.8%
6.0-7.0% <1%
$852,391 वॉल्यूम
$852,391 वॉल्यूम
31 जन, 2026
<1.0%
<1%
1.0–2.0%
<1%
2.0–3.0%
<1%
3.0–4.0%
2%
4.0–5.0%
87%
5.0–6.0%
11%
6.0-7.0%
1%
7.0–8.0%
<1%
8.0–9.0%
<1%
9.0%+
<1%
4.0–5.0% 87%
5.0–6.0% 11.3%
3.0–4.0% 1.8%
6.0-7.0% <1%
$852,391 वॉल्यूम
$852,391 वॉल्यूम
31 जन, 2026
<1.0%
$62,833 वॉल्यूम
<1%
1.0–2.0%
$74,124 वॉल्यूम
<1%
2.0–3.0%
$44,750 वॉल्यूम
<1%
3.0–4.0%
$78,760 वॉल्यूम
2%
4.0–5.0%
$215,414 वॉल्यूम
87%
5.0–6.0%
$78,269 वॉल्यूम
11%
6.0-7.0%
$68,485 वॉल्यूम
1%
7.0–8.0%
$62,549 वॉल्यूम
<1%
8.0–9.0%
$51,756 वॉल्यूम
<1%
9.0%+
$115,449 वॉल्यूम
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China’s official 2026 growth target of 4.5–5.0% continues to anchor trader expectations, reinforced by first-half results showing 4.7% expansion overall, with Q1 at 5.0% and Q2 easing to 4.3%. Major forecasters including the OECD, ADB, and Reuters polls project full-year outcomes clustered between 4.5% and 4.7%, citing sustained manufacturing and export strength alongside infrastructure investment that offsets persistent weakness in consumption and the property sector. Limited additional stimulus measures and ongoing structural imbalances have kept projections stable within the narrow band, while geopolitical uncertainties introduce downside risks without shifting the central consensus. This alignment explains the dominant 4.0–5.0% probability.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$852,391समाप्ति तिथि
31 जन, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China’s official 2026 growth target of 4.5–5.0% continues to anchor trader expectations, reinforced by first-half results showing 4.7% expansion overall, with Q1 at 5.0% and Q2 easing to 4.3%. Major forecasters including the OECD, ADB, and Reuters polls project full-year outcomes clustered between 4.5% and 4.7%, citing sustained manufacturing and export strength alongside infrastructure investment that offsets persistent weakness in consumption and the property sector. Limited additional stimulus measures and ongoing structural imbalances have kept projections stable within the narrow band, while geopolitical uncertainties introduce downside risks without shifting the central consensus. This alignment explains the dominant 4.0–5.0% probability.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
वॉल्यूम
$852,391समाप्ति तिथि
31 जन, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China’s official 2026 growth target of 4.5–5.0% continues to anchor trader expectations, reinforced by first-half results showing 4.7% expansion overall, with Q1 at 5.0% and Q2 easing to 4.3%. Major forecasters including the OECD, ADB, and Reuters polls project full-year outcomes clustered between 4.5% and 4.7%, citing sustained manufacturing and export strength alongside infrastructure investment that offsets persistent weakness in consumption and the property sector. Limited additional stimulus measures and ongoing structural imbalances have kept projections stable within the narrow band, while geopolitical uncertainties introduce downside risks without shifting the central consensus. This alignment explains the dominant 4.0–5.0% probability.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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