China's government set a 4.5–5.0% GDP growth target for 2026 during March Two Sessions—the lowest since 1991—amid persistent property sector contraction shaving potential output and subdued domestic consumption, driving trader consensus to price 4.0–5.0% at 68% implied probability. A Reuters poll forecasts 4.6% full-year expansion, supported by expected Q1 rebound to 4.8% year-on-year ahead of official data, robust Jan-Feb exports, and fiscal stimulus via 4% deficit-to-GDP ratio plus special bond issuance. The IMF's April 14 cut to 4.4% reflects Iran war escalation risks hiking energy costs, while 5.0–6.0% at 27% accounts for upside from further policy easing, with extremes dismissed by structural headwinds.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया4.0–5.0% 52%
5.0–6.0% 32.6%
<1.0% 1.3%
6.0-7.0% 1.2%
$250,971 वॉल्यूम
$250,971 वॉल्यूम
31 जन, 2026
<1.0%
1%
1.0–2.0%
1%
2.0–3.0%
1%
3.0–4.0%
1%
4.0–5.0%
52%
5.0–6.0%
33%
6.0-7.0%
1%
7.0–8.0%
<1%
8.0–9.0%
1%
9.0%+
<1%
4.0–5.0% 52%
5.0–6.0% 32.6%
<1.0% 1.3%
6.0-7.0% 1.2%
$250,971 वॉल्यूम
$250,971 वॉल्यूम
31 जन, 2026
<1.0%
$21,434 वॉल्यूम
1%
1.0–2.0%
$27,369 वॉल्यूम
1%
2.0–3.0%
$6,614 वॉल्यूम
1%
3.0–4.0%
$10,429 वॉल्यूम
1%
4.0–5.0%
$41,591 वॉल्यूम
52%
5.0–6.0%
$21,910 वॉल्यूम
33%
6.0-7.0%
$19,570 वॉल्यूम
1%
7.0–8.0%
$29,766 वॉल्यूम
<1%
8.0–9.0%
$6,927 वॉल्यूम
1%
9.0%+
$68,994 वॉल्यूम
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's government set a 4.5–5.0% GDP growth target for 2026 during March Two Sessions—the lowest since 1991—amid persistent property sector contraction shaving potential output and subdued domestic consumption, driving trader consensus to price 4.0–5.0% at 68% implied probability. A Reuters poll forecasts 4.6% full-year expansion, supported by expected Q1 rebound to 4.8% year-on-year ahead of official data, robust Jan-Feb exports, and fiscal stimulus via 4% deficit-to-GDP ratio plus special bond issuance. The IMF's April 14 cut to 4.4% reflects Iran war escalation risks hiking energy costs, while 5.0–6.0% at 27% accounts for upside from further policy easing, with extremes dismissed by structural headwinds.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$250,971समाप्ति तिथि
31 जन, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's government set a 4.5–5.0% GDP growth target for 2026 during March Two Sessions—the lowest since 1991—amid persistent property sector contraction shaving potential output and subdued domestic consumption, driving trader consensus to price 4.0–5.0% at 68% implied probability. A Reuters poll forecasts 4.6% full-year expansion, supported by expected Q1 rebound to 4.8% year-on-year ahead of official data, robust Jan-Feb exports, and fiscal stimulus via 4% deficit-to-GDP ratio plus special bond issuance. The IMF's April 14 cut to 4.4% reflects Iran war escalation risks hiking energy costs, while 5.0–6.0% at 27% accounts for upside from further policy easing, with extremes dismissed by structural headwinds.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
वॉल्यूम
$250,971समाप्ति तिथि
31 जन, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China's government set a 4.5–5.0% GDP growth target for 2026 during March Two Sessions—the lowest since 1991—amid persistent property sector contraction shaving potential output and subdued domestic consumption, driving trader consensus to price 4.0–5.0% at 68% implied probability. A Reuters poll forecasts 4.6% full-year expansion, supported by expected Q1 rebound to 4.8% year-on-year ahead of official data, robust Jan-Feb exports, and fiscal stimulus via 4% deficit-to-GDP ratio plus special bond issuance. The IMF's April 14 cut to 4.4% reflects Iran war escalation risks hiking energy costs, while 5.0–6.0% at 27% accounts for upside from further policy easing, with extremes dismissed by structural headwinds.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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