Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an overwhelming 91% implied probability against negative real GDP growth in 2026, reflecting skin-in-the-game optimism amid resilient economic indicators. March nonfarm payrolls surged 178,000—far exceeding subdued 60,000 forecasts—with unemployment easing to 4.3%, bolstering consumer spending and business confidence following Q4 2025's downward revision to 0.5% growth. Atlanta Fed's Q1 2026 GDPNow nowcast holds at 1.3%, aligning with economist medians near 2% full-year expansion per Fed, IMF, and S&P projections. While hotter March CPI at 3.3% year-over-year signals inflation risks that could delay Federal Reserve rate cuts, geopolitical tensions or tariff escalations pose realistic upset scenarios to this soft-landing narrative ahead of Q1 GDP advance estimates later this month.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में नकारात्मक जीडीपी वृद्धि?
2026 में नकारात्मक जीडीपी वृद्धि?
$19,510 वॉल्यूम
$19,510 वॉल्यूम
29 जन, 2027
$19,510 वॉल्यूम
$19,510 वॉल्यूम
29 जन, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an overwhelming 91% implied probability against negative real GDP growth in 2026, reflecting skin-in-the-game optimism amid resilient economic indicators. March nonfarm payrolls surged 178,000—far exceeding subdued 60,000 forecasts—with unemployment easing to 4.3%, bolstering consumer spending and business confidence following Q4 2025's downward revision to 0.5% growth. Atlanta Fed's Q1 2026 GDPNow nowcast holds at 1.3%, aligning with economist medians near 2% full-year expansion per Fed, IMF, and S&P projections. While hotter March CPI at 3.3% year-over-year signals inflation risks that could delay Federal Reserve rate cuts, geopolitical tensions or tariff escalations pose realistic upset scenarios to this soft-landing narrative ahead of Q1 GDP advance estimates later this month.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$19,510समाप्ति तिथि
29 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an overwhelming 91% implied probability against negative real GDP growth in 2026, reflecting skin-in-the-game optimism amid resilient economic indicators. March nonfarm payrolls surged 178,000—far exceeding subdued 60,000 forecasts—with unemployment easing to 4.3%, bolstering consumer spending and business confidence following Q4 2025's downward revision to 0.5% growth. Atlanta Fed's Q1 2026 GDPNow nowcast holds at 1.3%, aligning with economist medians near 2% full-year expansion per Fed, IMF, and S&P projections. While hotter March CPI at 3.3% year-over-year signals inflation risks that could delay Federal Reserve rate cuts, geopolitical tensions or tariff escalations pose realistic upset scenarios to this soft-landing narrative ahead of Q1 GDP advance estimates later this month.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
वॉल्यूम
$19,510समाप्ति तिथि
29 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an overwhelming 91% implied probability against negative real GDP growth in 2026, reflecting skin-in-the-game optimism amid resilient economic indicators. March nonfarm payrolls surged 178,000—far exceeding subdued 60,000 forecasts—with unemployment easing to 4.3%, bolstering consumer spending and business confidence following Q4 2025's downward revision to 0.5% growth. Atlanta Fed's Q1 2026 GDPNow nowcast holds at 1.3%, aligning with economist medians near 2% full-year expansion per Fed, IMF, and S&P projections. While hotter March CPI at 3.3% year-over-year signals inflation risks that could delay Federal Reserve rate cuts, geopolitical tensions or tariff escalations pose realistic upset scenarios to this soft-landing narrative ahead of Q1 GDP advance estimates later this month.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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