Strong consensus forecasts from the Federal Reserve and private economists underpin the 97.4% market-implied probability against negative 2026 U.S. real GDP growth, with the FOMC's June median projecting 2.2% Q4/Q4 expansion. Recent data reinforce this view: Q2 GDP rose 1.5% annualized with upward revisions to consumer spending and final sales to private domestic purchasers reaching 4.2%, while business investment in AI-related areas and corporate profits remain robust. Leading indicators, including New York Fed nowcasts near 2.2% for Q3, signal continued expansion near potential. Geopolitical oil shocks or abrupt policy shifts represent the primary tail risks that could still tip annual growth negative, though current momentum and labor market stability make such outcomes improbable.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में नकारात्मक जीडीपी वृद्धि?
2026 में नकारात्मक जीडीपी वृद्धि?
हाँ
3% संभावना
$33,113 वॉल्यूम
$33,113 वॉल्यूम
28 जन, 2027
हाँ
3% संभावना
$33,113 वॉल्यूम
$33,113 वॉल्यूम
28 जन, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong consensus forecasts from the Federal Reserve and private economists underpin the 97.4% market-implied probability against negative 2026 U.S. real GDP growth, with the FOMC's June median projecting 2.2% Q4/Q4 expansion. Recent data reinforce this view: Q2 GDP rose 1.5% annualized with upward revisions to consumer spending and final sales to private domestic purchasers reaching 4.2%, while business investment in AI-related areas and corporate profits remain robust. Leading indicators, including New York Fed nowcasts near 2.2% for Q3, signal continued expansion near potential. Geopolitical oil shocks or abrupt policy shifts represent the primary tail risks that could still tip annual growth negative, though current momentum and labor market stability make such outcomes improbable.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$33,113समाप्ति तिथि
29 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong consensus forecasts from the Federal Reserve and private economists underpin the 97.4% market-implied probability against negative 2026 U.S. real GDP growth, with the FOMC's June median projecting 2.2% Q4/Q4 expansion. Recent data reinforce this view: Q2 GDP rose 1.5% annualized with upward revisions to consumer spending and final sales to private domestic purchasers reaching 4.2%, while business investment in AI-related areas and corporate profits remain robust. Leading indicators, including New York Fed nowcasts near 2.2% for Q3, signal continued expansion near potential. Geopolitical oil shocks or abrupt policy shifts represent the primary tail risks that could still tip annual growth negative, though current momentum and labor market stability make such outcomes improbable.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
वॉल्यूम
$33,113समाप्ति तिथि
29 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...Strong consensus forecasts from the Federal Reserve and private economists underpin the 97.4% market-implied probability against negative 2026 U.S. real GDP growth, with the FOMC's June median projecting 2.2% Q4/Q4 expansion. Recent data reinforce this view: Q2 GDP rose 1.5% annualized with upward revisions to consumer spending and final sales to private domestic purchasers reaching 4.2%, while business investment in AI-related areas and corporate profits remain robust. Leading indicators, including New York Fed nowcasts near 2.2% for Q3, signal continued expansion near potential. Geopolitical oil shocks or abrupt policy shifts represent the primary tail risks that could still tip annual growth negative, though current momentum and labor market stability make such outcomes improbable.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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