Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 71.5% implied probability against a US recession by end-2026, reflecting resilience in the labor market despite resurgent inflation pressures. March 2026 nonfarm payrolls delivered the largest job gains in 15 months, pushing unemployment to 4.3% from 4.4%, bolstering consumer spending and growth outlooks even as CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since mid-2024—fueled by a 10.9% gasoline spike amid elevated oil prices above $116 per barrel from geopolitical tensions. The Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% in March, signaling a cautious stance on further cuts. Key catalysts ahead include the April 24 Q1 GDP advance estimate, April 29 FOMC meeting, and April PCE inflation data, which could shift rate path expectations and recession risks if growth holds above 1% or inflation reaccelerates.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 के अंत तक अमेरिकी मंदी?
2026 के अंत तक अमेरिकी मंदी?
हाँ
$1,306,880 वॉल्यूम
$1,306,880 वॉल्यूम
31 जन, 2027
हाँ
$1,306,880 वॉल्यूम
$1,306,880 वॉल्यूम
31 जन, 2027
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 71.5% implied probability against a US recession by end-2026, reflecting resilience in the labor market despite resurgent inflation pressures. March 2026 nonfarm payrolls delivered the largest job gains in 15 months, pushing unemployment to 4.3% from 4.4%, bolstering consumer spending and growth outlooks even as CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since mid-2024—fueled by a 10.9% gasoline spike amid elevated oil prices above $116 per barrel from geopolitical tensions. The Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% in March, signaling a cautious stance on further cuts. Key catalysts ahead include the April 24 Q1 GDP advance estimate, April 29 FOMC meeting, and April PCE inflation data, which could shift rate path expectations and recession risks if growth holds above 1% or inflation reaccelerates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
बाज़ार खुला: Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$1,306,880समाप्ति तिथि
31 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 71.5% implied probability against a US recession by end-2026, reflecting resilience in the labor market despite resurgent inflation pressures. March 2026 nonfarm payrolls delivered the largest job gains in 15 months, pushing unemployment to 4.3% from 4.4%, bolstering consumer spending and growth outlooks even as CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since mid-2024—fueled by a 10.9% gasoline spike amid elevated oil prices above $116 per barrel from geopolitical tensions. The Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% in March, signaling a cautious stance on further cuts. Key catalysts ahead include the April 24 Q1 GDP advance estimate, April 29 FOMC meeting, and April PCE inflation data, which could shift rate path expectations and recession risks if growth holds above 1% or inflation reaccelerates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
वॉल्यूम
$1,306,880समाप्ति तिथि
31 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 71.5% implied probability against a US recession by end-2026, reflecting resilience in the labor market despite resurgent inflation pressures. March 2026 nonfarm payrolls delivered the largest job gains in 15 months, pushing unemployment to 4.3% from 4.4%, bolstering consumer spending and growth outlooks even as CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since mid-2024—fueled by a 10.9% gasoline spike amid elevated oil prices above $116 per barrel from geopolitical tensions. The Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% in March, signaling a cautious stance on further cuts. Key catalysts ahead include the April 24 Q1 GDP advance estimate, April 29 FOMC meeting, and April PCE inflation data, which could shift rate path expectations and recession risks if growth holds above 1% or inflation reaccelerates.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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