Polymarket traders remain sharply divided on the ECB's June 2026 interest rate decision, pricing a 49% implied probability for no change against 46% for a 25 basis points increase from the current 2.00% deposit facility rate, reflecting uncertainty over persistent inflation pressures versus softening growth. March 2026 euro area CPI surged to 2.5% year-over-year—driven by energy costs tied to Middle East tensions—prompting the ECB to hold rates steady on March 19 while raising its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% and cutting growth projections to 0.9%; euro area unemployment edged up to 6.2% in February, signaling labor market cooling. ECB President Lagarde's April 14 remarks underscored indecision on responding to the mid-duration energy shock, with no clear second-round effects yet. Key swing factors ahead include the April 30 policy meeting, flash CPI release, and May data, which could tip sentiment if inflation broadens or proves transitory.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाECB Interest Rates: June 2026
ECB Interest Rates: June 2026
No change 49%
25 bps Increase 45%
50+ bps increase 3.4%
25 bps decrease 2.3%
$13,562 वॉल्यूम
$13,562 वॉल्यूम
11 जून, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
2%
No change
49%
25 bps Increase
45%
50+ bps increase
3%
No change 49%
25 bps Increase 45%
50+ bps increase 3.4%
25 bps decrease 2.3%
$13,562 वॉल्यूम
$13,562 वॉल्यूम
11 जून, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$2,375 वॉल्यूम
<1%
25 bps decrease
$2,122 वॉल्यूम
2%
No change
$2,918 वॉल्यूम
49%
25 bps Increase
$3,022 वॉल्यूम
45%
50+ bps increase
$3,125 वॉल्यूम
3%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Polymarket traders remain sharply divided on the ECB's June 2026 interest rate decision, pricing a 49% implied probability for no change against 46% for a 25 basis points increase from the current 2.00% deposit facility rate, reflecting uncertainty over persistent inflation pressures versus softening growth. March 2026 euro area CPI surged to 2.5% year-over-year—driven by energy costs tied to Middle East tensions—prompting the ECB to hold rates steady on March 19 while raising its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% and cutting growth projections to 0.9%; euro area unemployment edged up to 6.2% in February, signaling labor market cooling. ECB President Lagarde's April 14 remarks underscored indecision on responding to the mid-duration energy shock, with no clear second-round effects yet. Key swing factors ahead include the April 30 policy meeting, flash CPI release, and May data, which could tip sentiment if inflation broadens or proves transitory.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$13,562समाप्ति तिथि
11 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Polymarket traders remain sharply divided on the ECB's June 2026 interest rate decision, pricing a 49% implied probability for no change against 46% for a 25 basis points increase from the current 2.00% deposit facility rate, reflecting uncertainty over persistent inflation pressures versus softening growth. March 2026 euro area CPI surged to 2.5% year-over-year—driven by energy costs tied to Middle East tensions—prompting the ECB to hold rates steady on March 19 while raising its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% and cutting growth projections to 0.9%; euro area unemployment edged up to 6.2% in February, signaling labor market cooling. ECB President Lagarde's April 14 remarks underscored indecision on responding to the mid-duration energy shock, with no clear second-round effects yet. Key swing factors ahead include the April 30 policy meeting, flash CPI release, and May data, which could tip sentiment if inflation broadens or proves transitory.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
वॉल्यूम
$13,562समाप्ति तिथि
11 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders remain sharply divided on the ECB's June 2026 interest rate decision, pricing a 49% implied probability for no change against 46% for a 25 basis points increase from the current 2.00% deposit facility rate, reflecting uncertainty over persistent inflation pressures versus softening growth. March 2026 euro area CPI surged to 2.5% year-over-year—driven by energy costs tied to Middle East tensions—prompting the ECB to hold rates steady on March 19 while raising its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% and cutting growth projections to 0.9%; euro area unemployment edged up to 6.2% in February, signaling labor market cooling. ECB President Lagarde's April 14 remarks underscored indecision on responding to the mid-duration energy shock, with no clear second-round effects yet. Key swing factors ahead include the April 30 policy meeting, flash CPI release, and May data, which could tip sentiment if inflation broadens or proves transitory.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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