Trader consensus prices a commanding 96.2% probability of no change in ECB key interest rates at the April 30, 2026, Governing Council meeting, anchored by the March 19 decision to hold the deposit facility rate steady at 2% amid eurozone inflation stabilizing near the 2% target despite a temporary March flash estimate rise to 2.5% from Iran war-driven energy shocks. A recent ceasefire has eased oil and gas price pressures, tempering escalation risks and aligning with ECB President Lagarde's data-dependent stance that the shock appears transitory. This reflects skin-in-the-game wisdom of crowds favoring continuity given subdued growth forecasts. Realistic challenges include renewed Middle East tensions reigniting inflation, hotter-than-expected April flash data coinciding with the decision, or persistent wage pressures prompting a hike, though cuts remain improbable absent a sharp downturn.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाकोई बदलाव नहीं 96.2%
बढ़ोतरी 4.0%
50+ बीपीएस कटौती <1%
25 बीपीएस कटौती <1%
$614,553 वॉल्यूम
$614,553 वॉल्यूम
30 अप्रैल, 2026
50+ बीपीएस कटौती
<1%
25 बीपीएस कटौती
<1%
कोई बदलाव नहीं
96%
बढ़ोतरी
4%
कोई बदलाव नहीं 96.2%
बढ़ोतरी 4.0%
50+ बीपीएस कटौती <1%
25 बीपीएस कटौती <1%
$614,553 वॉल्यूम
$614,553 वॉल्यूम
30 अप्रैल, 2026
50+ बीपीएस कटौती
$102,965 वॉल्यूम
<1%
25 बीपीएस कटौती
$96,047 वॉल्यूम
<1%
कोई बदलाव नहीं
$198,209 वॉल्यूम
96%
बढ़ोतरी
$217,331 वॉल्यूम
4%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus prices a commanding 96.2% probability of no change in ECB key interest rates at the April 30, 2026, Governing Council meeting, anchored by the March 19 decision to hold the deposit facility rate steady at 2% amid eurozone inflation stabilizing near the 2% target despite a temporary March flash estimate rise to 2.5% from Iran war-driven energy shocks. A recent ceasefire has eased oil and gas price pressures, tempering escalation risks and aligning with ECB President Lagarde's data-dependent stance that the shock appears transitory. This reflects skin-in-the-game wisdom of crowds favoring continuity given subdued growth forecasts. Realistic challenges include renewed Middle East tensions reigniting inflation, hotter-than-expected April flash data coinciding with the decision, or persistent wage pressures prompting a hike, though cuts remain improbable absent a sharp downturn.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
बाज़ार खुला: Feb 6, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$614,553समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Feb 6, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus prices a commanding 96.2% probability of no change in ECB key interest rates at the April 30, 2026, Governing Council meeting, anchored by the March 19 decision to hold the deposit facility rate steady at 2% amid eurozone inflation stabilizing near the 2% target despite a temporary March flash estimate rise to 2.5% from Iran war-driven energy shocks. A recent ceasefire has eased oil and gas price pressures, tempering escalation risks and aligning with ECB President Lagarde's data-dependent stance that the shock appears transitory. This reflects skin-in-the-game wisdom of crowds favoring continuity given subdued growth forecasts. Realistic challenges include renewed Middle East tensions reigniting inflation, hotter-than-expected April flash data coinciding with the decision, or persistent wage pressures prompting a hike, though cuts remain improbable absent a sharp downturn.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
वॉल्यूम
$614,553समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Feb 6, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices a commanding 96.2% probability of no change in ECB key interest rates at the April 30, 2026, Governing Council meeting, anchored by the March 19 decision to hold the deposit facility rate steady at 2% amid eurozone inflation stabilizing near the 2% target despite a temporary March flash estimate rise to 2.5% from Iran war-driven energy shocks. A recent ceasefire has eased oil and gas price pressures, tempering escalation risks and aligning with ECB President Lagarde's data-dependent stance that the shock appears transitory. This reflects skin-in-the-game wisdom of crowds favoring continuity given subdued growth forecasts. Realistic challenges include renewed Middle East tensions reigniting inflation, hotter-than-expected April flash data coinciding with the decision, or persistent wage pressures prompting a hike, though cuts remain improbable absent a sharp downturn.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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