Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model nowcast for Q1 2026 real GDP growth fell to 1.3% as of April 9—down from 2.7% in mid-March—reflecting downward revisions to Q4 2025 growth at 0.7% annualized and mixed incoming data, anchoring Polymarket's trader consensus with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 22.8% for 1.5–2.0%, 20.2% for 2.0–2.5%, and 19.6% for 1.0–1.5%. Resilient March nonfarm payrolls of +178,000 and February retail sales up 0.6% mo/m signal consumer durability, but surging March CPI to 3.3% y/y from oil shocks and softening labor revisions heighten slowdown risks. Key swing factors include March retail sales (April 21) and final GDPNow updates ahead of BEA's advance estimate on April 30.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाQ1 2026 में अमेरिकी सकल घरेलू उत्पाद की वृद्धि?
Q1 2026 में अमेरिकी सकल घरेलू उत्पाद की वृद्धि?
1.5–2.0% 22.8%
1.0–1.5% 19.4%
2.0–2.5% 18.9%
<1.0% 12.6%
$309,454 वॉल्यूम
$309,454 वॉल्यूम
30 अप्रैल, 2026
<1.0%
13%
1.0–1.5%
19%
1.5–2.0%
23%
2.0–2.5%
19%
2.5–3.0%
12%
3.0–3.5%
6%
≥3.5%
6%
1.5–2.0% 22.8%
1.0–1.5% 19.4%
2.0–2.5% 18.9%
<1.0% 12.6%
$309,454 वॉल्यूम
$309,454 वॉल्यूम
30 अप्रैल, 2026
<1.0%
$30,321 वॉल्यूम
13%
1.0–1.5%
$7,821 वॉल्यूम
19%
1.5–2.0%
$30,729 वॉल्यूम
23%
2.0–2.5%
$44,815 वॉल्यूम
19%
2.5–3.0%
$25,829 वॉल्यूम
12%
3.0–3.5%
$93,363 वॉल्यूम
6%
≥3.5%
$76,577 वॉल्यूम
6%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model nowcast for Q1 2026 real GDP growth fell to 1.3% as of April 9—down from 2.7% in mid-March—reflecting downward revisions to Q4 2025 growth at 0.7% annualized and mixed incoming data, anchoring Polymarket's trader consensus with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 22.8% for 1.5–2.0%, 20.2% for 2.0–2.5%, and 19.6% for 1.0–1.5%. Resilient March nonfarm payrolls of +178,000 and February retail sales up 0.6% mo/m signal consumer durability, but surging March CPI to 3.3% y/y from oil shocks and softening labor revisions heighten slowdown risks. Key swing factors include March retail sales (April 21) and final GDPNow updates ahead of BEA's advance estimate on April 30.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$309,454समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model nowcast for Q1 2026 real GDP growth fell to 1.3% as of April 9—down from 2.7% in mid-March—reflecting downward revisions to Q4 2025 growth at 0.7% annualized and mixed incoming data, anchoring Polymarket's trader consensus with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 22.8% for 1.5–2.0%, 20.2% for 2.0–2.5%, and 19.6% for 1.0–1.5%. Resilient March nonfarm payrolls of +178,000 and February retail sales up 0.6% mo/m signal consumer durability, but surging March CPI to 3.3% y/y from oil shocks and softening labor revisions heighten slowdown risks. Key swing factors include March retail sales (April 21) and final GDPNow updates ahead of BEA's advance estimate on April 30.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
वॉल्यूम
$309,454समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model nowcast for Q1 2026 real GDP growth fell to 1.3% as of April 9—down from 2.7% in mid-March—reflecting downward revisions to Q4 2025 growth at 0.7% annualized and mixed incoming data, anchoring Polymarket's trader consensus with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 22.8% for 1.5–2.0%, 20.2% for 2.0–2.5%, and 19.6% for 1.0–1.5%. Resilient March nonfarm payrolls of +178,000 and February retail sales up 0.6% mo/m signal consumer durability, but surging March CPI to 3.3% y/y from oil shocks and softening labor revisions heighten slowdown risks. Key swing factors include March retail sales (April 21) and final GDPNow updates ahead of BEA's advance estimate on April 30.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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