Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 35% implied probability for UK annual GDP growth below 0% in 2026, narrowly ahead of 32% for 4-5% expansion, reflecting deep uncertainty after January 2026 GDP stagnated at 0% monthly amid Q4 2025's meager 0.1% quarterly rise and full-year 2025 growth of 1.3%. The IMF's April 14 downgrade to 0.8%—the sharpest among G7 nations—stems from Iran conflict-driven energy shocks elevating inflation and curbing consumer spending, amplifying recession risks. Bullish bets hinge on Bank of England rate cuts (current base at 4.25%) spurring investment rebound, with swing factors including Q1 2026 GDP data due May and oil price trajectories; sub-1% consensus forecasts like KPMG's 0.7% underscore contested dynamics.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाUK Annual GDP Growth 2026
UK Annual GDP Growth 2026
4-5% 32%
<0 29%
0-1% 11%
1-2% 11%
नया
नया
12 फ़र, 2027
<0
35%
0-1%
24%
1-2%
22%
2-3%
7%
3-4%
10%
4-5%
32%
5%+
6%
4-5% 32%
<0 29%
0-1% 11%
1-2% 11%
नया
नया
12 फ़र, 2027
<0
$334 वॉल्यूम
35%
0-1%
$309 वॉल्यूम
24%
1-2%
$210 वॉल्यूम
22%
2-3%
$237 वॉल्यूम
7%
3-4%
$201 वॉल्यूम
10%
4-5%
$411 वॉल्यूम
32%
5%+
$252 वॉल्यूम
6%
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 35% implied probability for UK annual GDP growth below 0% in 2026, narrowly ahead of 32% for 4-5% expansion, reflecting deep uncertainty after January 2026 GDP stagnated at 0% monthly amid Q4 2025's meager 0.1% quarterly rise and full-year 2025 growth of 1.3%. The IMF's April 14 downgrade to 0.8%—the sharpest among G7 nations—stems from Iran conflict-driven energy shocks elevating inflation and curbing consumer spending, amplifying recession risks. Bullish bets hinge on Bank of England rate cuts (current base at 4.25%) spurring investment rebound, with swing factors including Q1 2026 GDP data due May and oil price trajectories; sub-1% consensus forecasts like KPMG's 0.7% underscore contested dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$1,954समाप्ति तिथि
12 फ़र, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 35% implied probability for UK annual GDP growth below 0% in 2026, narrowly ahead of 32% for 4-5% expansion, reflecting deep uncertainty after January 2026 GDP stagnated at 0% monthly amid Q4 2025's meager 0.1% quarterly rise and full-year 2025 growth of 1.3%. The IMF's April 14 downgrade to 0.8%—the sharpest among G7 nations—stems from Iran conflict-driven energy shocks elevating inflation and curbing consumer spending, amplifying recession risks. Bullish bets hinge on Bank of England rate cuts (current base at 4.25%) spurring investment rebound, with swing factors including Q1 2026 GDP data due May and oil price trajectories; sub-1% consensus forecasts like KPMG's 0.7% underscore contested dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
वॉल्यूम
$1,954समाप्ति तिथि
12 फ़र, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 35% implied probability for UK annual GDP growth below 0% in 2026, narrowly ahead of 32% for 4-5% expansion, reflecting deep uncertainty after January 2026 GDP stagnated at 0% monthly amid Q4 2025's meager 0.1% quarterly rise and full-year 2025 growth of 1.3%. The IMF's April 14 downgrade to 0.8%—the sharpest among G7 nations—stems from Iran conflict-driven energy shocks elevating inflation and curbing consumer spending, amplifying recession risks. Bullish bets hinge on Bank of England rate cuts (current base at 4.25%) spurring investment rebound, with swing factors including Q1 2026 GDP data due May and oil price trajectories; sub-1% consensus forecasts like KPMG's 0.7% underscore contested dynamics.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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