Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 57% implied probability to U.S. real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, outpacing the Federal Reserve's March Summary of Economic Projections median of 2.4% (central tendency 2.2–2.5%), driven by resilient Q1 momentum offsetting Q4 2025's downward revision to 0.5% annualized from the Bureau of Economic Analysis on April 9. Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcasts Q1 at 1.3%, while IMF and Wall Street consensus hover at 2.2–2.3%, pressured by Middle East conflicts elevating oil prices and curbing spending. Lower buckets like <0.5% at 9.4% price in tail risks from fiscal policy shifts; watch April 30 Q1 advance estimate for catalysts.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में जीडीपी की वृद्धि
2026 में जीडीपी की वृद्धि
>2.5% 58%
1.5–2.0% 11.6%
2.0–2.5% 11%
<0.5% 9.4%
$26,701 वॉल्यूम
$26,701 वॉल्यूम
29 जन, 2027
<0.5%
9%
0.5–1.0%
5%
1.0–1.5%
8%
1.5–2.0%
12%
2.0–2.5%
11%
>2.5%
58%
>2.5% 58%
1.5–2.0% 11.6%
2.0–2.5% 11%
<0.5% 9.4%
$26,701 वॉल्यूम
$26,701 वॉल्यूम
29 जन, 2027
<0.5%
$3,752 वॉल्यूम
9%
0.5–1.0%
$15,052 वॉल्यूम
5%
1.0–1.5%
$1,460 वॉल्यूम
8%
1.5–2.0%
$1,277 वॉल्यूम
12%
2.0–2.5%
$1,338 वॉल्यूम
11%
>2.5%
$3,820 वॉल्यूम
58%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 57% implied probability to U.S. real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, outpacing the Federal Reserve's March Summary of Economic Projections median of 2.4% (central tendency 2.2–2.5%), driven by resilient Q1 momentum offsetting Q4 2025's downward revision to 0.5% annualized from the Bureau of Economic Analysis on April 9. Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcasts Q1 at 1.3%, while IMF and Wall Street consensus hover at 2.2–2.3%, pressured by Middle East conflicts elevating oil prices and curbing spending. Lower buckets like <0.5% at 9.4% price in tail risks from fiscal policy shifts; watch April 30 Q1 advance estimate for catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$26,701समाप्ति तिथि
29 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 57% implied probability to U.S. real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, outpacing the Federal Reserve's March Summary of Economic Projections median of 2.4% (central tendency 2.2–2.5%), driven by resilient Q1 momentum offsetting Q4 2025's downward revision to 0.5% annualized from the Bureau of Economic Analysis on April 9. Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcasts Q1 at 1.3%, while IMF and Wall Street consensus hover at 2.2–2.3%, pressured by Middle East conflicts elevating oil prices and curbing spending. Lower buckets like <0.5% at 9.4% price in tail risks from fiscal policy shifts; watch April 30 Q1 advance estimate for catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
वॉल्यूम
$26,701समाप्ति तिथि
29 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 57% implied probability to U.S. real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, outpacing the Federal Reserve's March Summary of Economic Projections median of 2.4% (central tendency 2.2–2.5%), driven by resilient Q1 momentum offsetting Q4 2025's downward revision to 0.5% annualized from the Bureau of Economic Analysis on April 9. Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcasts Q1 at 1.3%, while IMF and Wall Street consensus hover at 2.2–2.3%, pressured by Middle East conflicts elevating oil prices and curbing spending. Lower buckets like <0.5% at 9.4% price in tail risks from fiscal policy shifts; watch April 30 Q1 advance estimate for catalysts.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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