Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a Selic rate decrease at 96% implied probability for the Banco Central do Brasil's Copom April 29 meeting, building on the committee's March 18 initiation of a cautious easing cycle with a 25-basis-point cut to 14.75%—the first in two years—amid a broadly disinflationary backdrop despite elevated oil prices from Middle East tensions. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects anchored inflation expectations converging toward the 3% target, supported by prior IPCA softening to 3.81% YoY in February, though March's acceleration to 4.14% YoY on gasoline and food pressures has trimmed aggressive cut bets to a likely 25 basis points. Upside inflation risks from fiscal stimulus and resilient labor markets could prompt a pause if April data surprises hotter, challenging the frontrunner.