Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 76.5% implied probability to "No" for Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by April 30, reflecting sustained sub-10% volumes of pre-crisis averages amid the 2026 US-Iran confrontation. Ship-tracking data from Kpler and MarineTraffic confirm just a handful of transits daily—mostly Iran-linked or sanctioned vessels—following the US blockade's April 13 enforcement, which has intercepted six such ships but failed to spur commercial rerouting due to elevated war risk insurance premiums and Iranian threats. Traffic plunged over 95% since February 28 disruptions, with recent April 14-15 AIS snapshots showing negligible recovery, pricing in persistent geopolitical barriers despite diplomatic overtures. Key catalysts include potential escalations or de-escalation signals before month-end resolution.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाहाँ
$9,692,863 वॉल्यूम
$9,692,863 वॉल्यूम
30 अप्रैल, 2026
हाँ
$9,692,863 वॉल्यूम
$9,692,863 वॉल्यूम
30 अप्रैल, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 76.5% implied probability to "No" for Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by April 30, reflecting sustained sub-10% volumes of pre-crisis averages amid the 2026 US-Iran confrontation. Ship-tracking data from Kpler and MarineTraffic confirm just a handful of transits daily—mostly Iran-linked or sanctioned vessels—following the US blockade's April 13 enforcement, which has intercepted six such ships but failed to spur commercial rerouting due to elevated war risk insurance premiums and Iranian threats. Traffic plunged over 95% since February 28 disruptions, with recent April 14-15 AIS snapshots showing negligible recovery, pricing in persistent geopolitical barriers despite diplomatic overtures. Key catalysts include potential escalations or de-escalation signals before month-end resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 9, 2026, 2:01 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$9,692,863समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 9, 2026, 2:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 76.5% implied probability to "No" for Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by April 30, reflecting sustained sub-10% volumes of pre-crisis averages amid the 2026 US-Iran confrontation. Ship-tracking data from Kpler and MarineTraffic confirm just a handful of transits daily—mostly Iran-linked or sanctioned vessels—following the US blockade's April 13 enforcement, which has intercepted six such ships but failed to spur commercial rerouting due to elevated war risk insurance premiums and Iranian threats. Traffic plunged over 95% since February 28 disruptions, with recent April 14-15 AIS snapshots showing negligible recovery, pricing in persistent geopolitical barriers despite diplomatic overtures. Key catalysts include potential escalations or de-escalation signals before month-end resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
वॉल्यूम
$9,692,977समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 9, 2026, 2:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 76.5% implied probability to "No" for Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by April 30, reflecting sustained sub-10% volumes of pre-crisis averages amid the 2026 US-Iran confrontation. Ship-tracking data from Kpler and MarineTraffic confirm just a handful of transits daily—mostly Iran-linked or sanctioned vessels—following the US blockade's April 13 enforcement, which has intercepted six such ships but failed to spur commercial rerouting due to elevated war risk insurance premiums and Iranian threats. Traffic plunged over 95% since February 28 disruptions, with recent April 14-15 AIS snapshots showing negligible recovery, pricing in persistent geopolitical barriers despite diplomatic overtures. Key catalysts include potential escalations or de-escalation signals before month-end resolution.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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