Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 48.5% implied probability for 4-7 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on April 19, reflecting sustained low volumes amid the 2026 US-Iran crisis and the US naval blockade launched April 14 targeting Iranian-linked vessels. Recent Kpler and Windward tracking data confirm daily transits of 5-19 ships over the past week—predominantly sanctioned tankers—versus pre-crisis norms exceeding 100 vessels, as shipowners cite insurance spikes and attack risks despite a fragile April 7 ceasefire. This skin-in-the-game sentiment favors subdued activity through resolution, with swings possible from diplomatic progress or escalated enforcement.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाAvg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz on April 19?
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz on April 19?
4-7 41%
8-11 27%
<4 9%
12-15 9%
नया
नया
19 अप्रैल, 2026
<4
9%
4-7
41%
8-11
27%
12-15
9%
16-19
6%
20+
3%
4-7 41%
8-11 27%
<4 9%
12-15 9%
नया
नया
19 अप्रैल, 2026
<4
$1,619 वॉल्यूम
9%
4-7
$923 वॉल्यूम
41%
8-11
$515 वॉल्यूम
27%
12-15
$481 वॉल्यूम
9%
16-19
$509 वॉल्यूम
6%
20+
$2,858 वॉल्यूम
3%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 48.5% implied probability for 4-7 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on April 19, reflecting sustained low volumes amid the 2026 US-Iran crisis and the US naval blockade launched April 14 targeting Iranian-linked vessels. Recent Kpler and Windward tracking data confirm daily transits of 5-19 ships over the past week—predominantly sanctioned tankers—versus pre-crisis norms exceeding 100 vessels, as shipowners cite insurance spikes and attack risks despite a fragile April 7 ceasefire. This skin-in-the-game sentiment favors subdued activity through resolution, with swings possible from diplomatic progress or escalated enforcement.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
बाज़ार खुला: Apr 13, 2026, 3:36 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$6,845समाप्ति तिथि
19 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 13, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 48.5% implied probability for 4-7 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on April 19, reflecting sustained low volumes amid the 2026 US-Iran crisis and the US naval blockade launched April 14 targeting Iranian-linked vessels. Recent Kpler and Windward tracking data confirm daily transits of 5-19 ships over the past week—predominantly sanctioned tankers—versus pre-crisis norms exceeding 100 vessels, as shipowners cite insurance spikes and attack risks despite a fragile April 7 ceasefire. This skin-in-the-game sentiment favors subdued activity through resolution, with swings possible from diplomatic progress or escalated enforcement.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
वॉल्यूम
$6,845समाप्ति तिथि
19 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 13, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 48.5% implied probability for 4-7 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on April 19, reflecting sustained low volumes amid the 2026 US-Iran crisis and the US naval blockade launched April 14 targeting Iranian-linked vessels. Recent Kpler and Windward tracking data confirm daily transits of 5-19 ships over the past week—predominantly sanctioned tankers—versus pre-crisis norms exceeding 100 vessels, as shipowners cite insurance spikes and attack risks despite a fragile April 7 ceasefire. This skin-in-the-game sentiment favors subdued activity through resolution, with swings possible from diplomatic progress or escalated enforcement.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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