Trader consensus prices "No" at 98.4% for the Iranian regime falling by April 30, reflecting its institutional resilience amid the 2025–2026 protests and recent 2026 Iran war. The fragile April 8 ceasefire between Iran, the US, and Israel has eased external military pressure after strikes that assassinated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, enabling a leadership transition to his son Mojtaba via constitutional mechanisms and IRGC backing. Ongoing crackdowns—including over 1,000 hours of internet blackouts, executions like those in early April, arrests, and foreign militia deployments—have contained economic-fueled unrest to rooftop chants and isolated actions, preventing mass defections or uprisings. Realistic shifts could arise from ceasefire collapse, IRGC fissures, or post-war economic implosion sparking uncontainable protests.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाक्या 30 अप्रैल तक ईरानी शासन गिर जाएगा?
क्या 30 अप्रैल तक ईरानी शासन गिर जाएगा?
हाँ
$31,804,584 वॉल्यूम
$31,804,584 वॉल्यूम
30 अप्रैल, 2026
हाँ
$31,804,584 वॉल्यूम
$31,804,584 वॉल्यूम
30 अप्रैल, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices "No" at 98.4% for the Iranian regime falling by April 30, reflecting its institutional resilience amid the 2025–2026 protests and recent 2026 Iran war. The fragile April 8 ceasefire between Iran, the US, and Israel has eased external military pressure after strikes that assassinated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, enabling a leadership transition to his son Mojtaba via constitutional mechanisms and IRGC backing. Ongoing crackdowns—including over 1,000 hours of internet blackouts, executions like those in early April, arrests, and foreign militia deployments—have contained economic-fueled unrest to rooftop chants and isolated actions, preventing mass defections or uprisings. Realistic shifts could arise from ceasefire collapse, IRGC fissures, or post-war economic implosion sparking uncontainable protests.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$31,804,584समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices "No" at 98.4% for the Iranian regime falling by April 30, reflecting its institutional resilience amid the 2025–2026 protests and recent 2026 Iran war. The fragile April 8 ceasefire between Iran, the US, and Israel has eased external military pressure after strikes that assassinated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, enabling a leadership transition to his son Mojtaba via constitutional mechanisms and IRGC backing. Ongoing crackdowns—including over 1,000 hours of internet blackouts, executions like those in early April, arrests, and foreign militia deployments—have contained economic-fueled unrest to rooftop chants and isolated actions, preventing mass defections or uprisings. Realistic shifts could arise from ceasefire collapse, IRGC fissures, or post-war economic implosion sparking uncontainable protests.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$31,804,647समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 98.4% for the Iranian regime falling by April 30, reflecting its institutional resilience amid the 2025–2026 protests and recent 2026 Iran war. The fragile April 8 ceasefire between Iran, the US, and Israel has eased external military pressure after strikes that assassinated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, enabling a leadership transition to his son Mojtaba via constitutional mechanisms and IRGC backing. Ongoing crackdowns—including over 1,000 hours of internet blackouts, executions like those in early April, arrests, and foreign militia deployments—have contained economic-fueled unrest to rooftop chants and isolated actions, preventing mass defections or uprisings. Realistic shifts could arise from ceasefire collapse, IRGC fissures, or post-war economic implosion sparking uncontainable protests.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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