Despite U.S.-Israeli airstrikes since late February 2026 that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Intelligence Minister Esmail Khatib, and other senior officials, the Iranian regime persists under Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) consolidation, with no mass defections or coordinated nationwide uprising materializing amid 2025–2026 protests. Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.5% for regime fall by June 30, driven by the IRGC's repressive capacity and historical survival through five major unrest waves since 2009, bolstered by stabilized fighting intensity after mid-March and contained economic fallout from sanctions and infrastructure damage. Late-breaking escalations like Hormuz disruptions or elite fractures could shift odds, though current evidence underscores regime resilience.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाक्या 30 जून तक ईरानी शासन गिर जाएगा?
क्या 30 जून तक ईरानी शासन गिर जाएगा?
हाँ
$31,204,508 वॉल्यूम
$31,204,508 वॉल्यूम
30 जून, 2026
हाँ
$31,204,508 वॉल्यूम
$31,204,508 वॉल्यूम
30 जून, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Despite U.S.-Israeli airstrikes since late February 2026 that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Intelligence Minister Esmail Khatib, and other senior officials, the Iranian regime persists under Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) consolidation, with no mass defections or coordinated nationwide uprising materializing amid 2025–2026 protests. Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.5% for regime fall by June 30, driven by the IRGC's repressive capacity and historical survival through five major unrest waves since 2009, bolstered by stabilized fighting intensity after mid-March and contained economic fallout from sanctions and infrastructure damage. Late-breaking escalations like Hormuz disruptions or elite fractures could shift odds, though current evidence underscores regime resilience.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$31,204,508समाप्ति तिथि
30 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Despite U.S.-Israeli airstrikes since late February 2026 that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Intelligence Minister Esmail Khatib, and other senior officials, the Iranian regime persists under Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) consolidation, with no mass defections or coordinated nationwide uprising materializing amid 2025–2026 protests. Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.5% for regime fall by June 30, driven by the IRGC's repressive capacity and historical survival through five major unrest waves since 2009, bolstered by stabilized fighting intensity after mid-March and contained economic fallout from sanctions and infrastructure damage. Late-breaking escalations like Hormuz disruptions or elite fractures could shift odds, though current evidence underscores regime resilience.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$31,204,508समाप्ति तिथि
30 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite U.S.-Israeli airstrikes since late February 2026 that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Intelligence Minister Esmail Khatib, and other senior officials, the Iranian regime persists under Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) consolidation, with no mass defections or coordinated nationwide uprising materializing amid 2025–2026 protests. Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.5% for regime fall by June 30, driven by the IRGC's repressive capacity and historical survival through five major unrest waves since 2009, bolstered by stabilized fighting intensity after mid-March and contained economic fallout from sanctions and infrastructure damage. Late-breaking escalations like Hormuz disruptions or elite fractures could shift odds, though current evidence underscores regime resilience.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न