Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed Iran’s supreme leader by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026 after his father Ali Khamenei was killed in a February US-Israel strike that also claimed his wife. He has issued written statements and decrees on military appointments and policy but has made no verified public appearances in over six months, prompting repeated regime efforts to release proof-of-life videos and accounts while citing security needs amid active conflict. Persistent unconfirmed reports of serious injuries sustained in the attack, coupled with rumors of critical illness circulating in August, have fueled speculation about his capacity to remain in Tehran. Recent references to the sale of a London property linked to him and questions over his physical location add to trader focus on whether health, security, or political pressures could prompt departure from Iran before any resolution timeline. Ongoing war developments and internal regime messaging continue to shape assessments of mobility risks.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया$117,848 वॉल्यूम
31 अक्टू, 2026
31 अक्टूबर
2%
31 दिसंबर
4%
$117,848 वॉल्यूम
31 अक्टूबर
$119 वॉल्यूम
2%
31 दिसंबर
$816 वॉल्यूम
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed Iran’s supreme leader by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026 after his father Ali Khamenei was killed in a February US-Israel strike that also claimed his wife. He has issued written statements and decrees on military appointments and policy but has made no verified public appearances in over six months, prompting repeated regime efforts to release proof-of-life videos and accounts while citing security needs amid active conflict. Persistent unconfirmed reports of serious injuries sustained in the attack, coupled with rumors of critical illness circulating in August, have fueled speculation about his capacity to remain in Tehran. Recent references to the sale of a London property linked to him and questions over his physical location add to trader focus on whether health, security, or political pressures could prompt departure from Iran before any resolution timeline. Ongoing war developments and internal regime messaging continue to shape assessments of mobility risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Aug 18, 2026, 12:48 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$117,848समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Aug 18, 2026, 12:48 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed Iran’s supreme leader by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026 after his father Ali Khamenei was killed in a February US-Israel strike that also claimed his wife. He has issued written statements and decrees on military appointments and policy but has made no verified public appearances in over six months, prompting repeated regime efforts to release proof-of-life videos and accounts while citing security needs amid active conflict. Persistent unconfirmed reports of serious injuries sustained in the attack, coupled with rumors of critical illness circulating in August, have fueled speculation about his capacity to remain in Tehran. Recent references to the sale of a London property linked to him and questions over his physical location add to trader focus on whether health, security, or political pressures could prompt departure from Iran before any resolution timeline. Ongoing war developments and internal regime messaging continue to shape assessments of mobility risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$117,848समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Aug 18, 2026, 12:48 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed Iran’s supreme leader by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026 after his father Ali Khamenei was killed in a February US-Israel strike that also claimed his wife. He has issued written statements and decrees on military appointments and policy but has made no verified public appearances in over six months, prompting repeated regime efforts to release proof-of-life videos and accounts while citing security needs amid active conflict. Persistent unconfirmed reports of serious injuries sustained in the attack, coupled with rumors of critical illness circulating in August, have fueled speculation about his capacity to remain in Tehran. Recent references to the sale of a London property linked to him and questions over his physical location add to trader focus on whether health, security, or political pressures could prompt departure from Iran before any resolution timeline. Ongoing war developments and internal regime messaging continue to shape assessments of mobility risks.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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