Recent Houthi advances in Yemen, including the September 11 capture of Mocha port, Perim Island, and Dhubab, have placed the Bab el-Mandeb Strait under effective rebel control amid the broader U.S.-Iran conflict that has already curtailed Strait of Hormuz flows. This has driven tanker transits down sharply, with recent daily counts as low as three (44% below the prior seven-day average) and overall vessel movements reduced 60-70% from pre-disruption baselines. Saudi crude loadings via the route have collapsed, pushing Brent above $108 per barrel and elevating war-risk premiums, insurance costs, and freight rates for reroutes around the Cape of Good Hope. Shipping firms continue selective transits despite the risks, but further Houthi enforcement or Saudi retaliation could accelerate a full halt; upcoming tanker data releases and any escalation in coastal fighting remain key near-term catalysts for implied probabilities.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया0 जहाज बाब अल - मंडेब को किसी भी तारीख तक पारगमन करते हैं..?
0 जहाज बाब अल - मंडेब को किसी भी तारीख तक पारगमन करते हैं..?
नया
30 सित, 2026
30 सितंबर
37%
31 दिसंबर
51%
$24 वॉल्यूम
30 सितंबर
$24 वॉल्यूम
37%
31 दिसंबर
$0 वॉल्यूम
51%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent Houthi advances in Yemen, including the September 11 capture of Mocha port, Perim Island, and Dhubab, have placed the Bab el-Mandeb Strait under effective rebel control amid the broader U.S.-Iran conflict that has already curtailed Strait of Hormuz flows. This has driven tanker transits down sharply, with recent daily counts as low as three (44% below the prior seven-day average) and overall vessel movements reduced 60-70% from pre-disruption baselines. Saudi crude loadings via the route have collapsed, pushing Brent above $108 per barrel and elevating war-risk premiums, insurance costs, and freight rates for reroutes around the Cape of Good Hope. Shipping firms continue selective transits despite the risks, but further Houthi enforcement or Saudi retaliation could accelerate a full halt; upcoming tanker data releases and any escalation in coastal fighting remain key near-term catalysts for implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
बाज़ार खुला: Sep 11, 2026, 4:17 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$24समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Sep 11, 2026, 4:17 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent Houthi advances in Yemen, including the September 11 capture of Mocha port, Perim Island, and Dhubab, have placed the Bab el-Mandeb Strait under effective rebel control amid the broader U.S.-Iran conflict that has already curtailed Strait of Hormuz flows. This has driven tanker transits down sharply, with recent daily counts as low as three (44% below the prior seven-day average) and overall vessel movements reduced 60-70% from pre-disruption baselines. Saudi crude loadings via the route have collapsed, pushing Brent above $108 per barrel and elevating war-risk premiums, insurance costs, and freight rates for reroutes around the Cape of Good Hope. Shipping firms continue selective transits despite the risks, but further Houthi enforcement or Saudi retaliation could accelerate a full halt; upcoming tanker data releases and any escalation in coastal fighting remain key near-term catalysts for implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
वॉल्यूम
$24समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Sep 11, 2026, 4:17 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...Recent Houthi advances in Yemen, including the September 11 capture of Mocha port, Perim Island, and Dhubab, have placed the Bab el-Mandeb Strait under effective rebel control amid the broader U.S.-Iran conflict that has already curtailed Strait of Hormuz flows. This has driven tanker transits down sharply, with recent daily counts as low as three (44% below the prior seven-day average) and overall vessel movements reduced 60-70% from pre-disruption baselines. Saudi crude loadings via the route have collapsed, pushing Brent above $108 per barrel and elevating war-risk premiums, insurance costs, and freight rates for reroutes around the Cape of Good Hope. Shipping firms continue selective transits despite the risks, but further Houthi enforcement or Saudi retaliation could accelerate a full halt; upcoming tanker data releases and any escalation in coastal fighting remain key near-term catalysts for implied probabilities.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न