Recent U.S.-Iran direct talks in Islamabad ended April 13 without a permanent peace agreement, despite a two-week ceasefire holding amid U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following Iran's rejection of nuclear suspension terms and sanctions relief demands. President Trump signaled potential resumption within 48 hours, with Vice President Vance noting Iran's non-acceptance of the U.S. "best and final" offer, while Tehran cited unmet expectations on enrichment rights and regional security guarantees. Trader consensus reflects deep impasses rooted in regime red lines, echoing JCPOA collapse, though Pakistan-mediated second rounds loom as pivotal; escalation risks or diplomatic breakthroughs could rapidly alter probabilities before any resolution deadline.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाअमेरिका x ईरान स्थायी शांति समझौता... तक?
अमेरिका x ईरान स्थायी शांति समझौता... तक?
$7,615,636 वॉल्यूम
22 अप्रैल, 2026
22 अप्रैल
22%
30 अप्रैल
37%
31 मई
60%
30 जून
71%
$7,615,636 वॉल्यूम
22 अप्रैल
$5,052,562 वॉल्यूम
22%
30 अप्रैल
$1,400,239 वॉल्यूम
37%
31 मई
$939,822 वॉल्यूम
60%
30 जून
$226,111 वॉल्यूम
71%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent U.S.-Iran direct talks in Islamabad ended April 13 without a permanent peace agreement, despite a two-week ceasefire holding amid U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following Iran's rejection of nuclear suspension terms and sanctions relief demands. President Trump signaled potential resumption within 48 hours, with Vice President Vance noting Iran's non-acceptance of the U.S. "best and final" offer, while Tehran cited unmet expectations on enrichment rights and regional security guarantees. Trader consensus reflects deep impasses rooted in regime red lines, echoing JCPOA collapse, though Pakistan-mediated second rounds loom as pivotal; escalation risks or diplomatic breakthroughs could rapidly alter probabilities before any resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$7,615,636समाप्ति तिथि
31 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent U.S.-Iran direct talks in Islamabad ended April 13 without a permanent peace agreement, despite a two-week ceasefire holding amid U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following Iran's rejection of nuclear suspension terms and sanctions relief demands. President Trump signaled potential resumption within 48 hours, with Vice President Vance noting Iran's non-acceptance of the U.S. "best and final" offer, while Tehran cited unmet expectations on enrichment rights and regional security guarantees. Trader consensus reflects deep impasses rooted in regime red lines, echoing JCPOA collapse, though Pakistan-mediated second rounds loom as pivotal; escalation risks or diplomatic breakthroughs could rapidly alter probabilities before any resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$7,615,636समाप्ति तिथि
31 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-Iran direct talks in Islamabad ended April 13 without a permanent peace agreement, despite a two-week ceasefire holding amid U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following Iran's rejection of nuclear suspension terms and sanctions relief demands. President Trump signaled potential resumption within 48 hours, with Vice President Vance noting Iran's non-acceptance of the U.S. "best and final" offer, while Tehran cited unmet expectations on enrichment rights and regional security guarantees. Trader consensus reflects deep impasses rooted in regime red lines, echoing JCPOA collapse, though Pakistan-mediated second rounds loom as pivotal; escalation risks or diplomatic breakthroughs could rapidly alter probabilities before any resolution deadline.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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