Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 67% implied probability for at least 20 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30, driven by the U.S. Navy's blockade initiated April 13, which slashed daily transit calls from pre-crisis averages of 40-50 to 6-8 per IMF Portwatch data through April 12. Recent WSJ reports of over 20 commercial vessels passing in 24 hours ending April 15, including sanctioned tankers and China-flagged VLCCs, alongside Trump-cited 34 transits, have tempered blockade fears amid U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks inching toward a framework deal. Brent crude settled at $95 per barrel on April 15, balancing 13 million barrels per day supply disruptions with negotiation optimism; key catalysts include IMF daily updates and talks outcomes, with over 500 vessels backlogged potentially fueling a traffic surge.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाक्या __ जहाज अप्रैल के अंत तक किसी भी दिन होर्मुज जलडमरूमध्य से गुज़रेंगे?
क्या __ जहाज अप्रैल के अंत तक किसी भी दिन होर्मुज जलडमरूमध्य से गुज़रेंगे?
$402,316 वॉल्यूम
30 अप्रैल, 2026
20+
75%
40+
46%
60+
35%
80+
21%
$402,316 वॉल्यूम
20+
$169,757 वॉल्यूम
75%
40+
$64,234 वॉल्यूम
46%
60+
$65,143 वॉल्यूम
35%
80+
$103,241 वॉल्यूम
21%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 67% implied probability for at least 20 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30, driven by the U.S. Navy's blockade initiated April 13, which slashed daily transit calls from pre-crisis averages of 40-50 to 6-8 per IMF Portwatch data through April 12. Recent WSJ reports of over 20 commercial vessels passing in 24 hours ending April 15, including sanctioned tankers and China-flagged VLCCs, alongside Trump-cited 34 transits, have tempered blockade fears amid U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks inching toward a framework deal. Brent crude settled at $95 per barrel on April 15, balancing 13 million barrels per day supply disruptions with negotiation optimism; key catalysts include IMF daily updates and talks outcomes, with over 500 vessels backlogged potentially fueling a traffic surge.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 24, 2026, 1:01 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$402,316समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 24, 2026, 1:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 67% implied probability for at least 20 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30, driven by the U.S. Navy's blockade initiated April 13, which slashed daily transit calls from pre-crisis averages of 40-50 to 6-8 per IMF Portwatch data through April 12. Recent WSJ reports of over 20 commercial vessels passing in 24 hours ending April 15, including sanctioned tankers and China-flagged VLCCs, alongside Trump-cited 34 transits, have tempered blockade fears amid U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks inching toward a framework deal. Brent crude settled at $95 per barrel on April 15, balancing 13 million barrels per day supply disruptions with negotiation optimism; key catalysts include IMF daily updates and talks outcomes, with over 500 vessels backlogged potentially fueling a traffic surge.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
वॉल्यूम
$402,316समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 24, 2026, 1:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 67% implied probability for at least 20 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30, driven by the U.S. Navy's blockade initiated April 13, which slashed daily transit calls from pre-crisis averages of 40-50 to 6-8 per IMF Portwatch data through April 12. Recent WSJ reports of over 20 commercial vessels passing in 24 hours ending April 15, including sanctioned tankers and China-flagged VLCCs, alongside Trump-cited 34 transits, have tempered blockade fears amid U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks inching toward a framework deal. Brent crude settled at $95 per barrel on April 15, balancing 13 million barrels per day supply disruptions with negotiation optimism; key catalysts include IMF daily updates and talks outcomes, with over 500 vessels backlogged potentially fueling a traffic surge.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न