Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low implied probability for direct Gulf State military action against Iran, shaped by Saudi Arabia and UAE's defensive interceptions of hundreds of Iranian missiles since early March 2026, alongside tacit support for U.S. strikes and base access without offensive escalation. Recent Iranian attacks on energy infrastructure, cutting Saudi output by 600,000 barrels per day, have spiked a geopolitical risk premium into Brent crude, now trading near $95 per barrel after peaking above $120 amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions that stranded over 600 vessels. Gulf equities remain volatile, with Aramco shares buoyed by higher oil yet pressured by regional uncertainty. Key catalysts include fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks and potential Gulf self-defense declarations, which could shift odds if Iranian barrages persist.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाईरान के खिलाफ खाड़ी राज्य की सैन्य कार्रवाई... तक?
ईरान के खिलाफ खाड़ी राज्य की सैन्य कार्रवाई... तक?
$839,424 वॉल्यूम
30 अप्रैल, 2026
15 अप्रैल
1%
30 अप्रैल
6%
$839,424 वॉल्यूम
15 अप्रैल
$539,250 वॉल्यूम
1%
30 अप्रैल
$300,174 वॉल्यूम
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low implied probability for direct Gulf State military action against Iran, shaped by Saudi Arabia and UAE's defensive interceptions of hundreds of Iranian missiles since early March 2026, alongside tacit support for U.S. strikes and base access without offensive escalation. Recent Iranian attacks on energy infrastructure, cutting Saudi output by 600,000 barrels per day, have spiked a geopolitical risk premium into Brent crude, now trading near $95 per barrel after peaking above $120 amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions that stranded over 600 vessels. Gulf equities remain volatile, with Aramco shares buoyed by higher oil yet pressured by regional uncertainty. Key catalysts include fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks and potential Gulf self-defense declarations, which could shift odds if Iranian barrages persist.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 27, 2026, 1:42 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$839,424समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 27, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low implied probability for direct Gulf State military action against Iran, shaped by Saudi Arabia and UAE's defensive interceptions of hundreds of Iranian missiles since early March 2026, alongside tacit support for U.S. strikes and base access without offensive escalation. Recent Iranian attacks on energy infrastructure, cutting Saudi output by 600,000 barrels per day, have spiked a geopolitical risk premium into Brent crude, now trading near $95 per barrel after peaking above $120 amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions that stranded over 600 vessels. Gulf equities remain volatile, with Aramco shares buoyed by higher oil yet pressured by regional uncertainty. Key catalysts include fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks and potential Gulf self-defense declarations, which could shift odds if Iranian barrages persist.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
वॉल्यूम
$839,424समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 27, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low implied probability for direct Gulf State military action against Iran, shaped by Saudi Arabia and UAE's defensive interceptions of hundreds of Iranian missiles since early March 2026, alongside tacit support for U.S. strikes and base access without offensive escalation. Recent Iranian attacks on energy infrastructure, cutting Saudi output by 600,000 barrels per day, have spiked a geopolitical risk premium into Brent crude, now trading near $95 per barrel after peaking above $120 amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions that stranded over 600 vessels. Gulf equities remain volatile, with Aramco shares buoyed by higher oil yet pressured by regional uncertainty. Key catalysts include fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks and potential Gulf self-defense declarations, which could shift odds if Iranian barrages persist.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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