A fragile US-Iran-Israel ceasefire agreed on April 7, following weeks of airstrikes and missile exchanges since late February, has held amid mediation efforts and Trump's deadline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, anchoring trader consensus at low probabilities for additional countries conducting military action against Iran by April 30. Gulf states including UAE (leading at 8%) and Saudi Arabia (6%) have shifted from caution to quietly backing further degradation of Iranian capabilities after Tehran's retaliatory strikes on regional targets, yet none have joined operations, deterred by escalation risks and diplomatic pressures from Russia and China. Upcoming direct talks and two-week de-escalation windows could tip balances, though Iran's missile reorganization signals persistent threats.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया30 अप्रैल तक कौन से देश ईरान के खिलाफ सैन्य कार्रवाई करेंगे?
30 अप्रैल तक कौन से देश ईरान के खिलाफ सैन्य कार्रवाई करेंगे?
$2,766,616 वॉल्यूम
30 अप्रैल, 2026
यूएई
6%
सऊदी अरब
5%
कुवैत
3%
क़तर
2%
तुर्की
2%
ब्रिटेन
2%
कोई यूरोपीय संघ देश
2%
बहरीन
1%
जॉर्डन
1%
ओमान
1%
जर्मनी
1%
कनाडा
<1%
फ्रांस
<1%
$2,766,616 वॉल्यूम
यूएई
$1,348,180 वॉल्यूम
6%
सऊदी अरब
$511,012 वॉल्यूम
5%
कुवैत
$115,154 वॉल्यूम
3%
क़तर
$27,577 वॉल्यूम
2%
तुर्की
$68,992 वॉल्यूम
2%
ब्रिटेन
$220,828 वॉल्यूम
2%
कोई यूरोपीय संघ देश
$44,927 वॉल्यूम
2%
बहरीन
$45,115 वॉल्यूम
1%
जॉर्डन
$19,699 वॉल्यूम
1%
ओमान
$30,136 वॉल्यूम
1%
जर्मनी
$120,121 वॉल्यूम
1%
कनाडा
$39,886 वॉल्यूम
<1%
फ्रांस
$174,988 वॉल्यूम
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.A fragile US-Iran-Israel ceasefire agreed on April 7, following weeks of airstrikes and missile exchanges since late February, has held amid mediation efforts and Trump's deadline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, anchoring trader consensus at low probabilities for additional countries conducting military action against Iran by April 30. Gulf states including UAE (leading at 8%) and Saudi Arabia (6%) have shifted from caution to quietly backing further degradation of Iranian capabilities after Tehran's retaliatory strikes on regional targets, yet none have joined operations, deterred by escalation risks and diplomatic pressures from Russia and China. Upcoming direct talks and two-week de-escalation windows could tip balances, though Iran's missile reorganization signals persistent threats.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$2,766,616समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.A fragile US-Iran-Israel ceasefire agreed on April 7, following weeks of airstrikes and missile exchanges since late February, has held amid mediation efforts and Trump's deadline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, anchoring trader consensus at low probabilities for additional countries conducting military action against Iran by April 30. Gulf states including UAE (leading at 8%) and Saudi Arabia (6%) have shifted from caution to quietly backing further degradation of Iranian capabilities after Tehran's retaliatory strikes on regional targets, yet none have joined operations, deterred by escalation risks and diplomatic pressures from Russia and China. Upcoming direct talks and two-week de-escalation windows could tip balances, though Iran's missile reorganization signals persistent threats.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$2,766,616समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile US-Iran-Israel ceasefire agreed on April 7, following weeks of airstrikes and missile exchanges since late February, has held amid mediation efforts and Trump's deadline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, anchoring trader consensus at low probabilities for additional countries conducting military action against Iran by April 30. Gulf states including UAE (leading at 8%) and Saudi Arabia (6%) have shifted from caution to quietly backing further degradation of Iranian capabilities after Tehran's retaliatory strikes on regional targets, yet none have joined operations, deterred by escalation risks and diplomatic pressures from Russia and China. Upcoming direct talks and two-week de-escalation windows could tip balances, though Iran's missile reorganization signals persistent threats.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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