Trader consensus reflects a 73% implied probability for "No" on any country expelling a U.S. ambassador by December 31, driven by the absence of recent diplomatic ruptures triggering such measures. No verifiable expulsions have occurred in 2026, despite bilateral frictions like U.S.-South Africa tensions, where the U.S. declared South African envoy Ebrahim Rasool persona non grata earlier this year for criticizing President Trump, prompting domestic calls in Pretoria for reciprocity but no action. The Trump administration's late-2025 recall of nearly 30 career ambassadors from African, Asian, and European posts reshuffled U.S. diplomacy without host-country retaliations. Stable relations amid ongoing foreign policy negotiations in hotspots like the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa support traders' low expectations for escalation before year-end.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया$13,031 वॉल्यूम
$13,031 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
$13,031 वॉल्यूम
$13,031 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus reflects a 73% implied probability for "No" on any country expelling a U.S. ambassador by December 31, driven by the absence of recent diplomatic ruptures triggering such measures. No verifiable expulsions have occurred in 2026, despite bilateral frictions like U.S.-South Africa tensions, where the U.S. declared South African envoy Ebrahim Rasool persona non grata earlier this year for criticizing President Trump, prompting domestic calls in Pretoria for reciprocity but no action. The Trump administration's late-2025 recall of nearly 30 career ambassadors from African, Asian, and European posts reshuffled U.S. diplomacy without host-country retaliations. Stable relations amid ongoing foreign policy negotiations in hotspots like the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa support traders' low expectations for escalation before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$13,031समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus reflects a 73% implied probability for "No" on any country expelling a U.S. ambassador by December 31, driven by the absence of recent diplomatic ruptures triggering such measures. No verifiable expulsions have occurred in 2026, despite bilateral frictions like U.S.-South Africa tensions, where the U.S. declared South African envoy Ebrahim Rasool persona non grata earlier this year for criticizing President Trump, prompting domestic calls in Pretoria for reciprocity but no action. The Trump administration's late-2025 recall of nearly 30 career ambassadors from African, Asian, and European posts reshuffled U.S. diplomacy without host-country retaliations. Stable relations amid ongoing foreign policy negotiations in hotspots like the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa support traders' low expectations for escalation before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$13,031समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 73% implied probability for "No" on any country expelling a U.S. ambassador by December 31, driven by the absence of recent diplomatic ruptures triggering such measures. No verifiable expulsions have occurred in 2026, despite bilateral frictions like U.S.-South Africa tensions, where the U.S. declared South African envoy Ebrahim Rasool persona non grata earlier this year for criticizing President Trump, prompting domestic calls in Pretoria for reciprocity but no action. The Trump administration's late-2025 recall of nearly 30 career ambassadors from African, Asian, and European posts reshuffled U.S. diplomacy without host-country retaliations. Stable relations amid ongoing foreign policy negotiations in hotspots like the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa support traders' low expectations for escalation before year-end.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न