Amid the ongoing US-Israeli military operations against Iran, which escalated with a US naval blockade of Iranian ports on April 13 after weekend talks in Islamabad collapsed, Tehran has threatened retaliation against Gulf neighbors' infrastructure while launching missile and drone barrages at Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain. No country besides the US or Israel has conducted qualifying military action—defined as launching drones, missiles, or airstrikes impacting Iranian soil or embassies—despite Saudi Arabia reserving the right on March 18 amid Iranian strikes on its territory. Traders reflect low implied probabilities on such involvement before April 30, given Gulf states' defensive posture, fragile ceasefire plans, and stalled diplomacy under President Trump's deadlines for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाक्या कोई अन्य देश ईरान के खिलाफ... तक सैन्य कार्रवाई करेगा?
क्या कोई अन्य देश ईरान के खिलाफ... तक सैन्य कार्रवाई करेगा?
$1,217,583 वॉल्यूम
15 अप्रैल, 2026
15 अप्रैल
2%
30 अप्रैल
9%
$1,217,583 वॉल्यूम
15 अप्रैल
$829,629 वॉल्यूम
2%
30 अप्रैल
$387,954 वॉल्यूम
9%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the ongoing US-Israeli military operations against Iran, which escalated with a US naval blockade of Iranian ports on April 13 after weekend talks in Islamabad collapsed, Tehran has threatened retaliation against Gulf neighbors' infrastructure while launching missile and drone barrages at Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain. No country besides the US or Israel has conducted qualifying military action—defined as launching drones, missiles, or airstrikes impacting Iranian soil or embassies—despite Saudi Arabia reserving the right on March 18 amid Iranian strikes on its territory. Traders reflect low implied probabilities on such involvement before April 30, given Gulf states' defensive posture, fragile ceasefire plans, and stalled diplomacy under President Trump's deadlines for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 19, 2026, 2:09 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$1,217,583समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 19, 2026, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the ongoing US-Israeli military operations against Iran, which escalated with a US naval blockade of Iranian ports on April 13 after weekend talks in Islamabad collapsed, Tehran has threatened retaliation against Gulf neighbors' infrastructure while launching missile and drone barrages at Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain. No country besides the US or Israel has conducted qualifying military action—defined as launching drones, missiles, or airstrikes impacting Iranian soil or embassies—despite Saudi Arabia reserving the right on March 18 amid Iranian strikes on its territory. Traders reflect low implied probabilities on such involvement before April 30, given Gulf states' defensive posture, fragile ceasefire plans, and stalled diplomacy under President Trump's deadlines for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
वॉल्यूम
$1,217,583समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 19, 2026, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the ongoing US-Israeli military operations against Iran, which escalated with a US naval blockade of Iranian ports on April 13 after weekend talks in Islamabad collapsed, Tehran has threatened retaliation against Gulf neighbors' infrastructure while launching missile and drone barrages at Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain. No country besides the US or Israel has conducted qualifying military action—defined as launching drones, missiles, or airstrikes impacting Iranian soil or embassies—despite Saudi Arabia reserving the right on March 18 amid Iranian strikes on its territory. Traders reflect low implied probabilities on such involvement before April 30, given Gulf states' defensive posture, fragile ceasefire plans, and stalled diplomacy under President Trump's deadlines for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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