NATO’s Article 5 has remained uninvoked since its sole activation after the 2001 attacks, reflecting a high threshold for collective defense that requires consensus on an armed attack against member territory. Russia’s ongoing commitment of forces to Ukraine, combined with intelligence assessments that Moscow lacks readiness for large-scale conflict with NATO before 2030, has kept direct strikes on alliance members off the immediate horizon. Hybrid incidents such as 2025 drone incursions over Poland and Estonian airspace prompted Article 4 consultations and enhanced deployments like Operation Eastern Sentry, while a March 2026 Iranian missile incident near Turkey was explicitly ruled out by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte as grounds for activation. Traders price the 87.5% probability on no invocation before 2027 around this pattern of calibrated deterrence and sustained focus on sub-threshold responses rather than escalation.