Trader consensus prices "No" at 87.9% for a US ally acquiring nuclear weapons before 2027, reflecting the absence of any confirmed proliferation programs among key partners like South Korea and Japan despite heightened regional threats from North Korea and China. Recent polls show strong South Korean public support—around 76% favoring indigenous capability—but official statements during the IAEA director-general's April 2026 visit reaffirmed full NPT compliance and transparent safeguards, while plans for nuclear-powered submarines include preemptive nonproliferation measures. Japan reiterated its non-nuclear principles amid scrutiny of its plutonium stockpile, upholding decades-long commitments under US extended deterrence. Significant technical, diplomatic, and legal barriers, including alliance dynamics and historical precedents, sustain low odds of a breakthrough within the timeline.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयानया
नया
31 दिस, 2026
नया
नया
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Trader consensus prices "No" at 87.9% for a US ally acquiring nuclear weapons before 2027, reflecting the absence of any confirmed proliferation programs among key partners like South Korea and Japan despite heightened regional threats from North Korea and China. Recent polls show strong South Korean public support—around 76% favoring indigenous capability—but official statements during the IAEA director-general's April 2026 visit reaffirmed full NPT compliance and transparent safeguards, while plans for nuclear-powered submarines include preemptive nonproliferation measures. Japan reiterated its non-nuclear principles amid scrutiny of its plutonium stockpile, upholding decades-long commitments under US extended deterrence. Significant technical, diplomatic, and legal barriers, including alliance dynamics and historical precedents, sustain low odds of a breakthrough within the timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$6,028समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Trader consensus prices "No" at 87.9% for a US ally acquiring nuclear weapons before 2027, reflecting the absence of any confirmed proliferation programs among key partners like South Korea and Japan despite heightened regional threats from North Korea and China. Recent polls show strong South Korean public support—around 76% favoring indigenous capability—but official statements during the IAEA director-general's April 2026 visit reaffirmed full NPT compliance and transparent safeguards, while plans for nuclear-powered submarines include preemptive nonproliferation measures. Japan reiterated its non-nuclear principles amid scrutiny of its plutonium stockpile, upholding decades-long commitments under US extended deterrence. Significant technical, diplomatic, and legal barriers, including alliance dynamics and historical precedents, sustain low odds of a breakthrough within the timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
वॉल्यूम
$6,028समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 87.9% for a US ally acquiring nuclear weapons before 2027, reflecting the absence of any confirmed proliferation programs among key partners like South Korea and Japan despite heightened regional threats from North Korea and China. Recent polls show strong South Korean public support—around 76% favoring indigenous capability—but official statements during the IAEA director-general's April 2026 visit reaffirmed full NPT compliance and transparent safeguards, while plans for nuclear-powered submarines include preemptive nonproliferation measures. Japan reiterated its non-nuclear principles amid scrutiny of its plutonium stockpile, upholding decades-long commitments under US extended deterrence. Significant technical, diplomatic, and legal barriers, including alliance dynamics and historical precedents, sustain low odds of a breakthrough within the timeline.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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