Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 96.2% implied probability against the Federal Reserve being abolished before 2027, driven by the central bank's entrenched role in U.S. monetary policy—including setting the federal funds rate and managing inflation expectations amid stable Treasury yields—and the complete stagnation of abolition legislation like H.R.1846 and S.869, both introduced in March 2025 with zero committee advancement, hearings, or bipartisan cosponsors over the past year. Absent any viable political pathway requiring supermajorities in a divided Congress, traders view the idea as fringe rhetoric lacking real momentum. Tail risks include a severe economic crisis prompting radical reforms or an unforeseen partisan sweep aligning with anti-Fed populism, though such scenarios remain highly improbable given the Fed's systemic importance.