Polymarket traders price a 32.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 at 2026 year-end, edging out the 23% odds for $7,000-$7,500 amid closely contested sentiment shaped by US-Iran war escalation risks and March 2026 CPI inflation surging to 3.3%. Despite the index's recent record close near 7,025—recovering war-induced losses—and robust CY2026 earnings growth forecasts of 15-17% to around $309 per share (Goldman Sachs), sticky inflation and Federal Reserve's steady 3.5%-3.75% fed funds rate with just one cut projected curb upside momentum. Key swing factors include Middle East conflict resolution, upcoming Q1 GDP data, April CPI release, and May FOMC meeting, contrasting Wall Street targets of 7,200-7,800.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाS&P 500 (SPX) 2026 के अंत में क्या बंद होगा?
S&P 500 (SPX) 2026 के अंत में क्या बंद होगा?
<$6,000 33%
$7,000-$7,500 23%
$6,500-$7,000 18%
$6,000-$6,500 16%
$18,724 वॉल्यूम
$18,724 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
<$6,000
33%
$6,000-$6,500
16%
$6,500-$7,000
18%
$7,000-$7,500
23%
$7,500-$8,000
10%
>$8,000 से अधिक
7%
<$6,000 33%
$7,000-$7,500 23%
$6,500-$7,000 18%
$6,000-$6,500 16%
$18,724 वॉल्यूम
$18,724 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
<$6,000
$11,566 वॉल्यूम
33%
$6,000-$6,500
$1,333 वॉल्यूम
16%
$6,500-$7,000
$1,597 वॉल्यूम
18%
$7,000-$7,500
$892 वॉल्यूम
23%
$7,500-$8,000
$1,570 वॉल्यूम
10%
>$8,000 से अधिक
$1,767 वॉल्यूम
7%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders price a 32.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 at 2026 year-end, edging out the 23% odds for $7,000-$7,500 amid closely contested sentiment shaped by US-Iran war escalation risks and March 2026 CPI inflation surging to 3.3%. Despite the index's recent record close near 7,025—recovering war-induced losses—and robust CY2026 earnings growth forecasts of 15-17% to around $309 per share (Goldman Sachs), sticky inflation and Federal Reserve's steady 3.5%-3.75% fed funds rate with just one cut projected curb upside momentum. Key swing factors include Middle East conflict resolution, upcoming Q1 GDP data, April CPI release, and May FOMC meeting, contrasting Wall Street targets of 7,200-7,800.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$18,724समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETसमाधान स्रोत
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders price a 32.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 at 2026 year-end, edging out the 23% odds for $7,000-$7,500 amid closely contested sentiment shaped by US-Iran war escalation risks and March 2026 CPI inflation surging to 3.3%. Despite the index's recent record close near 7,025—recovering war-induced losses—and robust CY2026 earnings growth forecasts of 15-17% to around $309 per share (Goldman Sachs), sticky inflation and Federal Reserve's steady 3.5%-3.75% fed funds rate with just one cut projected curb upside momentum. Key swing factors include Middle East conflict resolution, upcoming Q1 GDP data, April CPI release, and May FOMC meeting, contrasting Wall Street targets of 7,200-7,800.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
वॉल्यूम
$18,724समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETसमाधान स्रोत
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 32.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 at 2026 year-end, edging out the 23% odds for $7,000-$7,500 amid closely contested sentiment shaped by US-Iran war escalation risks and March 2026 CPI inflation surging to 3.3%. Despite the index's recent record close near 7,025—recovering war-induced losses—and robust CY2026 earnings growth forecasts of 15-17% to around $309 per share (Goldman Sachs), sticky inflation and Federal Reserve's steady 3.5%-3.75% fed funds rate with just one cut projected curb upside momentum. Key swing factors include Middle East conflict resolution, upcoming Q1 GDP data, April CPI release, and May FOMC meeting, contrasting Wall Street targets of 7,200-7,800.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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