Olivia Rodrigo’s “the cure” holds the clearest edge in the Best Alternative category at the 2026 VMAs, buoyed by its May release, No. 1 debut on Billboard’s Hot Rock & Alternative Songs chart, and strong critical reception for its introspective downtempo rock sound. The track’s commercial traction and Rodrigo’s established alt-leaning audience give it momentum heading into fan voting, which closes September 25 ahead of the September 27 ceremony. Noah Kahan’s earlier “The Great Divide” and the other nominees—ranging from Geese’s “Taxes” to Tame Impala’s “Dracula”—reflect solid alternative credentials and chart history, yet lack the same recent crossover visibility. Traders appear to weigh current streaming and radio performance most heavily in this closely contested fan-voted field.