**Strong NHC forecasts and model consensus for rapid intensification position Category 5 as the dominant market outcome for Hurricane Polo.** As of the latest advisories, Polo sits near 15.0°N 102.3°W with 95–110 mph sustained winds and continues to strengthen rapidly under warm sea-surface temperatures, low wind shear, and favorable mid-level moisture. Satellite imagery shows an improving structure with a clearing eye and cold cloud tops, while SHIPS rapid intensification indices indicate an 80%+ chance of at least 40 kt gains in 24 hours. Official guidance peaks the storm at 140 kt (Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale) within 24–36 hours before possible eyewall replacement cycles and increasing shear bring modest later weakening. Traders appear to weigh these environmental conditions and ensemble agreement heavily, with only modest probability assigned to lower categories if unexpected shear or structural changes intervene before peak intensity.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयातूफ़ान पोलो कितना मज़बूत होगा?
तूफ़ान पोलो कितना मज़बूत होगा?
कैटेगरी 5 71%
कैटेगरी 4 26%
श्रेणी 3 6%
श्रेणी 2 2.8%
नया
नया
15 अक्टू, 2026
कैटेगरी 1 या कमजोर
1%
श्रेणी 2
3%
श्रेणी 3
6%
कैटेगरी 4
26%
कैटेगरी 5
71%
कैटेगरी 5 71%
कैटेगरी 4 26%
श्रेणी 3 6%
श्रेणी 2 2.8%
नया
नया
15 अक्टू, 2026
कैटेगरी 1 या कमजोर
$219 वॉल्यूम
1%
श्रेणी 2
$99 वॉल्यूम
3%
श्रेणी 3
$47 वॉल्यूम
6%
कैटेगरी 4
$127 वॉल्यूम
26%
कैटेगरी 5
$47 वॉल्यूम
71%
This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Hurricane Polo. Peak intensity means the highest Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale category assigned to Polo in any Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory issued for the storm.
The category is stated in the advisory and is determined by maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average): Category 1 is 74 to 95 mph, Category 2 is 96 to 110 mph, Category 3 is 111 to 129 mph, Category 4 is 130 to 156 mph, and Category 5 is 157 mph or greater. Each category includes both of its stated bounds, so every possible peak wind speed falls in exactly one category.
Wind speeds will be used exactly as published by the National Hurricane Center, without rounding. The National Hurricane Center reports maximum sustained winds in increments of 5 mph. Post-storm best track data and the Tropical Cyclone Report for Polo will not be considered for resolution. Advisories issued by any agency other than the National Hurricane Center and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center will not be considered for resolution.
This market will resolve once Polo dissipates. If Polo has not dissipated by October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after that date; it will then resolve based on the finalized advisory data published up to that point.
If the data remains unavailable at that point, or the National Hurricane Center has discontinued publication, this market will resolve according to the highest category assigned to Polo in any advisory published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to the National Hurricane Center differing from other sources.
A reanalysis or reclassification of Polo's intensity published after Polo dissipates will not change the resolution of this market. Revisions published before Polo dissipates will be considered; revisions published after it dissipates will not be considered for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisories issued for Polo by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), specifically the category and the maximum sustained wind speed stated in the advisory.**Strong NHC forecasts and model consensus for rapid intensification position Category 5 as the dominant market outcome for Hurricane Polo.** As of the latest advisories, Polo sits near 15.0°N 102.3°W with 95–110 mph sustained winds and continues to strengthen rapidly under warm sea-surface temperatures, low wind shear, and favorable mid-level moisture. Satellite imagery shows an improving structure with a clearing eye and cold cloud tops, while SHIPS rapid intensification indices indicate an 80%+ chance of at least 40 kt gains in 24 hours. Official guidance peaks the storm at 140 kt (Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale) within 24–36 hours before possible eyewall replacement cycles and increasing shear bring modest later weakening. Traders appear to weigh these environmental conditions and ensemble agreement heavily, with only modest probability assigned to lower categories if unexpected shear or structural changes intervene before peak intensity.
This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Hurricane Polo. Peak intensity means the highest Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale category assigned to Polo in any Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory issued for the storm.
The category is stated in the advisory and is determined by maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average): Category 1 is 74 to 95 mph, Category 2 is 96 to 110 mph, Category 3 is 111 to 129 mph, Category 4 is 130 to 156 mph, and Category 5 is 157 mph or greater. Each category includes both of its stated bounds, so every possible peak wind speed falls in exactly one category.
Wind speeds will be used exactly as published by the National Hurricane Center, without rounding. The National Hurricane Center reports maximum sustained winds in increments of 5 mph. Post-storm best track data and the Tropical Cyclone Report for Polo will not be considered for resolution. Advisories issued by any agency other than the National Hurricane Center and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center will not be considered for resolution.
This market will resolve once Polo dissipates. If Polo has not dissipated by October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after that date; it will then resolve based on the finalized advisory data published up to that point.
If the data remains unavailable at that point, or the National Hurricane Center has discontinued publication, this market will resolve according to the highest category assigned to Polo in any advisory published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to the National Hurricane Center differing from other sources.
A reanalysis or reclassification of Polo's intensity published after Polo dissipates will not change the resolution of this market. Revisions published before Polo dissipates will be considered; revisions published after it dissipates will not be considered for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisories issued for Polo by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), specifically the category and the maximum sustained wind speed stated in the advisory.
The category is stated in the advisory and is determined by maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average): Category 1 is 74 to 95 mph, Category 2 is 96 to 110 mph, Category 3 is 111 to 129 mph, Category 4 is 130 to 156 mph, and Category 5 is 157 mph or greater. Each category includes both of its stated bounds, so every possible peak wind speed falls in exactly one category.
Wind speeds will be used exactly as published by the National Hurricane Center, without rounding. The National Hurricane Center reports maximum sustained winds in increments of 5 mph. Post-storm best track data and the Tropical Cyclone Report for Polo will not be considered for resolution. Advisories issued by any agency other than the National Hurricane Center and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center will not be considered for resolution.
This market will resolve once Polo dissipates. If Polo has not dissipated by October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after that date; it will then resolve based on the finalized advisory data published up to that point.
If the data remains unavailable at that point, or the National Hurricane Center has discontinued publication, this market will resolve according to the highest category assigned to Polo in any advisory published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to the National Hurricane Center differing from other sources.
A reanalysis or reclassification of Polo's intensity published after Polo dissipates will not change the resolution of this market. Revisions published before Polo dissipates will be considered; revisions published after it dissipates will not be considered for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisories issued for Polo by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), specifically the category and the maximum sustained wind speed stated in the advisory.
बाज़ार खुला: Sep 21, 2026, 5:11 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$540समाप्ति तिथि
16 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 21, 2026, 5:11 PM ETसमाधान स्रोत
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/रिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Hurricane Polo. Peak intensity means the highest Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale category assigned to Polo in any Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory issued for the storm.
The category is stated in the advisory and is determined by maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average): Category 1 is 74 to 95 mph, Category 2 is 96 to 110 mph, Category 3 is 111 to 129 mph, Category 4 is 130 to 156 mph, and Category 5 is 157 mph or greater. Each category includes both of its stated bounds, so every possible peak wind speed falls in exactly one category.
Wind speeds will be used exactly as published by the National Hurricane Center, without rounding. The National Hurricane Center reports maximum sustained winds in increments of 5 mph. Post-storm best track data and the Tropical Cyclone Report for Polo will not be considered for resolution. Advisories issued by any agency other than the National Hurricane Center and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center will not be considered for resolution.
This market will resolve once Polo dissipates. If Polo has not dissipated by October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after that date; it will then resolve based on the finalized advisory data published up to that point.
If the data remains unavailable at that point, or the National Hurricane Center has discontinued publication, this market will resolve according to the highest category assigned to Polo in any advisory published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to the National Hurricane Center differing from other sources.
A reanalysis or reclassification of Polo's intensity published after Polo dissipates will not change the resolution of this market. Revisions published before Polo dissipates will be considered; revisions published after it dissipates will not be considered for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisories issued for Polo by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), specifically the category and the maximum sustained wind speed stated in the advisory.**Strong NHC forecasts and model consensus for rapid intensification position Category 5 as the dominant market outcome for Hurricane Polo.** As of the latest advisories, Polo sits near 15.0°N 102.3°W with 95–110 mph sustained winds and continues to strengthen rapidly under warm sea-surface temperatures, low wind shear, and favorable mid-level moisture. Satellite imagery shows an improving structure with a clearing eye and cold cloud tops, while SHIPS rapid intensification indices indicate an 80%+ chance of at least 40 kt gains in 24 hours. Official guidance peaks the storm at 140 kt (Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale) within 24–36 hours before possible eyewall replacement cycles and increasing shear bring modest later weakening. Traders appear to weigh these environmental conditions and ensemble agreement heavily, with only modest probability assigned to lower categories if unexpected shear or structural changes intervene before peak intensity.
This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Hurricane Polo. Peak intensity means the highest Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale category assigned to Polo in any Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory issued for the storm.
The category is stated in the advisory and is determined by maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average): Category 1 is 74 to 95 mph, Category 2 is 96 to 110 mph, Category 3 is 111 to 129 mph, Category 4 is 130 to 156 mph, and Category 5 is 157 mph or greater. Each category includes both of its stated bounds, so every possible peak wind speed falls in exactly one category.
Wind speeds will be used exactly as published by the National Hurricane Center, without rounding. The National Hurricane Center reports maximum sustained winds in increments of 5 mph. Post-storm best track data and the Tropical Cyclone Report for Polo will not be considered for resolution. Advisories issued by any agency other than the National Hurricane Center and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center will not be considered for resolution.
This market will resolve once Polo dissipates. If Polo has not dissipated by October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after that date; it will then resolve based on the finalized advisory data published up to that point.
If the data remains unavailable at that point, or the National Hurricane Center has discontinued publication, this market will resolve according to the highest category assigned to Polo in any advisory published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to the National Hurricane Center differing from other sources.
A reanalysis or reclassification of Polo's intensity published after Polo dissipates will not change the resolution of this market. Revisions published before Polo dissipates will be considered; revisions published after it dissipates will not be considered for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisories issued for Polo by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), specifically the category and the maximum sustained wind speed stated in the advisory.
The category is stated in the advisory and is determined by maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average): Category 1 is 74 to 95 mph, Category 2 is 96 to 110 mph, Category 3 is 111 to 129 mph, Category 4 is 130 to 156 mph, and Category 5 is 157 mph or greater. Each category includes both of its stated bounds, so every possible peak wind speed falls in exactly one category.
Wind speeds will be used exactly as published by the National Hurricane Center, without rounding. The National Hurricane Center reports maximum sustained winds in increments of 5 mph. Post-storm best track data and the Tropical Cyclone Report for Polo will not be considered for resolution. Advisories issued by any agency other than the National Hurricane Center and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center will not be considered for resolution.
This market will resolve once Polo dissipates. If Polo has not dissipated by October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after that date; it will then resolve based on the finalized advisory data published up to that point.
If the data remains unavailable at that point, or the National Hurricane Center has discontinued publication, this market will resolve according to the highest category assigned to Polo in any advisory published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to the National Hurricane Center differing from other sources.
A reanalysis or reclassification of Polo's intensity published after Polo dissipates will not change the resolution of this market. Revisions published before Polo dissipates will be considered; revisions published after it dissipates will not be considered for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisories issued for Polo by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), specifically the category and the maximum sustained wind speed stated in the advisory.
वॉल्यूम
$540समाप्ति तिथि
16 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 21, 2026, 5:11 PM ETसमाधान स्रोत
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/रिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...**Strong NHC forecasts and model consensus for rapid intensification position Category 5 as the dominant market outcome for Hurricane Polo.** As of the latest advisories, Polo sits near 15.0°N 102.3°W with 95–110 mph sustained winds and continues to strengthen rapidly under warm sea-surface temperatures, low wind shear, and favorable mid-level moisture. Satellite imagery shows an improving structure with a clearing eye and cold cloud tops, while SHIPS rapid intensification indices indicate an 80%+ chance of at least 40 kt gains in 24 hours. Official guidance peaks the storm at 140 kt (Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale) within 24–36 hours before possible eyewall replacement cycles and increasing shear bring modest later weakening. Traders appear to weigh these environmental conditions and ensemble agreement heavily, with only modest probability assigned to lower categories if unexpected shear or structural changes intervene before peak intensity.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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