Jannik Sinner’s withdrawal from the 2026 US Open has shifted trader focus in the men’s draw toward Carlos Alcaraz as the clear frontrunner to reach the final, given the Spaniard’s recent hard-court major titles and confirmed participation. Alexander Zverev and Novak Djokovic now sit as the next most likely challengers, with Djokovic benefiting from an easier path in the absence of the world No. 1. On the women’s side, Aryna Sabalenka remains the consensus leader to contest the final, ahead of Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff, based on current rankings and hard-court results. The main draw is set for release on August 27, after which bracket position, potential quarter and semifinal matchups, and any late injury updates will further shape implied probabilities for finalists. Qualifying is underway, with several top seeds still to confirm fitness ahead of the hard-court Grand Slam.