Alaska’s top-four primary concluded on August 18, leaving a crowded general-election field for both the U.S. Senate seat held by incumbent Dan Sullivan and the open governorship under term limits. The Senate contest pits Sullivan against former Representative Mary Peltola in a race rated toss-up or lean Republican by forecasters, with recent polling showing the two within a few points. The gubernatorial primary featured seventeen candidates across parties and independents, producing an uncertain advance to the November ballot that includes ranked-choice voting. These dynamics create multiple plausible partisan and independent combinations, driving the elevated 50 percent price on “Other” while keeping the four listed split and sweep outcomes in a narrow 12–30.5 percent band. No dominant late developments have shifted the closely contested positioning.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiReps sweep 31%
Dems sweep 30%
Dems win Gov, Reps win Senate 29%
Reps win Gov, Dems win Senate 12%
Reps sweep
31%
Dems sweep
30%
Dems win Gov, Reps win Senate
29%
Reps win Gov, Dems win Senate
12%
Reps sweep 31%
Dems sweep 30%
Dems win Gov, Reps win Senate 29%
Reps win Gov, Dems win Senate 12%
Reps sweep
31%
Dems sweep
30%
Dems win Gov, Reps win Senate
29%
Reps win Gov, Dems win Senate
12%
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with the party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 11, 2026, 11:07 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with the party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Alaska’s top-four primary concluded on August 18, leaving a crowded general-election field for both the U.S. Senate seat held by incumbent Dan Sullivan and the open governorship under term limits. The Senate contest pits Sullivan against former Representative Mary Peltola in a race rated toss-up or lean Republican by forecasters, with recent polling showing the two within a few points. The gubernatorial primary featured seventeen candidates across parties and independents, producing an uncertain advance to the November ballot that includes ranked-choice voting. These dynamics create multiple plausible partisan and independent combinations, driving the elevated 50 percent price on “Other” while keeping the four listed split and sweep outcomes in a narrow 12–30.5 percent band. No dominant late developments have shifted the closely contested positioning.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui



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