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icon for Another Clacton by-election called in 2026?
Politik·Nigel Farage

Another Clacton by-election called in 2026?

icon for Another Clacton by-election called in 2026?
Politik·Nigel Farage

Another Clacton by-election called in 2026?

30% peluang
Polymarket
BARU
30% peluang
Polymarket
BARU
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify. The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Nigel Farage triggered and won the August 13, 2026 Clacton by-election after resigning in early July amid a parliamentary standards inquiry into undeclared gifts, donations, and finances.** He secured 63.3% of the vote against a record field of 34 candidates (including novelty entrant Count Binface), with major parties boycotting the contest. This returned him to the seat he has held since the 2024 general election. As of mid-August, Farage remains the sitting Reform UK MP with no announced intention to vacate the constituency again. The ongoing inquiry has resumed but has not produced new triggers for resignation or disqualification. With the next UK general election expected no earlier than 2029 under standard parliamentary rules, the absence of fresh vacancies, health issues, or procedural changes supports traders’ 70% probability against another by-election occurring in 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify.

The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$0
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Aug 18, 2026, 3:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify. The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify. The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Nigel Farage triggered and won the August 13, 2026 Clacton by-election after resigning in early July amid a parliamentary standards inquiry into undeclared gifts, donations, and finances.** He secured 63.3% of the vote against a record field of 34 candidates (including novelty entrant Count Binface), with major parties boycotting the contest. This returned him to the seat he has held since the 2024 general election. As of mid-August, Farage remains the sitting Reform UK MP with no announced intention to vacate the constituency again. The ongoing inquiry has resumed but has not produced new triggers for resignation or disqualification. With the next UK general election expected no earlier than 2029 under standard parliamentary rules, the absence of fresh vacancies, health issues, or procedural changes supports traders’ 70% probability against another by-election occurring in 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify.

The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$0
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Aug 18, 2026, 3:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify. The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Another Clacton by-election called in 2026?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham "Ya" atau "Tidak" berdasarkan apakah mereka yakin event ini akan terjadi. Probabilitas crowd-sourced saat ini adalah 30% untuk "Yes." Misalnya, jika "Ya" dihargai 30¢, pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 30% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

"Another Clacton by-election called in 2026?" adalah pasar yang baru dibuat di Polymarket, diluncurkan pada Aug 18, 2026. Sebagai pasar awal, ini adalah kesempatanmu untuk menjadi salah satu trader pertama yang menetapkan peluang dan membangun sinyal harga awal pasar. Kamu juga bisa menandai halaman ini untuk melacak volume dan aktivitas trading seiring pasar mendapatkan traksi.

Untuk trading di "Another Clacton by-election called in 2026?," cukup pilih apakah kamu yakin jawabannya "Ya" atau "Tidak." Setiap sisi memiliki harga saat ini yang mencerminkan probabilitas tersirat pasar. Masukkan jumlah kamu dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" dan hasilnya diselesaikan sebagai "Ya," setiap saham membayar $1. Jika diselesaikan sebagai "Tidak," saham "Ya" kamu bernilai $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Probabilitas saat ini untuk "Another Clacton by-election called in 2026?" adalah 30% untuk "Yes." Ini berarti keramaian Polymarket saat ini percaya ada peluang 30% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time berdasarkan trade aktual, memberikan sinyal yang terus diperbarui tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Another Clacton by-election called in 2026?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.