Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 38% implied probability for WTI crude oil (CL) settling above $84 in June 2026, narrowly ahead of the 29.5% for $77-$84, reflecting closely contested dynamics amid recent price volatility. Easing Middle East tensions—highlighted by a reported U.S.-Iran agreement on April 8 that triggered a 13-16% WTI plunge—coupled with OPEC+ announcements of modest output hikes (206,000 bpd for May), have shifted sentiment toward ample Q2 supply, pressuring June futures to ~$82 per barrel from April highs near $111. EIA data shows U.S. crude inventories down 913,000 barrels last week (ending April 10), but forecasts a Q2 Brent peak at $115 before easing on non-OPEC gains. Key swing factors include next EIA inventory release (April 22) and Strait of Hormuz stability, with backwardation signaling near-term premiums versus longer-dated contango.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWhat will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in June?
What will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in June?
$77-$84 39%
>$84 38%
$70-$77 14.4%
$63-$70 13.8%
$134,531 Vol.
$134,531 Vol.
<$42
2%
$42-$49
2%
$49-$56
2%
$56-$63
4%
$63-$70
10%
$70-$77
14%
$77-$84
30%
>$84
38%
$77-$84 39%
>$84 38%
$70-$77 14.4%
$63-$70 13.8%
$134,531 Vol.
$134,531 Vol.
<$42
2%
$42-$49
2%
$49-$56
2%
$56-$63
4%
$63-$70
10%
$70-$77
14%
$77-$84
30%
>$84
38%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 38% implied probability for WTI crude oil (CL) settling above $84 in June 2026, narrowly ahead of the 29.5% for $77-$84, reflecting closely contested dynamics amid recent price volatility. Easing Middle East tensions—highlighted by a reported U.S.-Iran agreement on April 8 that triggered a 13-16% WTI plunge—coupled with OPEC+ announcements of modest output hikes (206,000 bpd for May), have shifted sentiment toward ample Q2 supply, pressuring June futures to ~$82 per barrel from April highs near $111. EIA data shows U.S. crude inventories down 913,000 barrels last week (ending April 10), but forecasts a Q2 Brent peak at $115 before easing on non-OPEC gains. Key swing factors include next EIA inventory release (April 22) and Strait of Hormuz stability, with backwardation signaling near-term premiums versus longer-dated contango.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan