Several 2026 Senate contests remain within a few points in recent polling averages, with Texas, Iowa, Michigan, Alaska, and Maine rated toss-ups by major forecasters due to open seats, retirements, and strong challengers. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico faces Republican Ken Paxton in a race where fundraising and turnout among suburban voters could decide a narrow outcome. Iowa pits Republican Ashley Hinson against Democrat Josh Turek following Joni Ernst’s retirement, while Michigan’s open seat after Gary Peters pits Abdul El-Sayed against Mike Rogers. Traders assign the highest probabilities to Texas and Iowa as the narrowest finish because sustained national generic ballot trends and late-cycle shifts in these battlegrounds continue to compress projected margins ahead of November 3.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiTexas 15%
Iowa 14.1%
Michigan 10.8%
Alaska 11%
$42,046 Vol.
$42,046 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
15%
Iowa
14%
Michigan
11%
Alaska
11%
Nebraska
9%
Ohio (Special)
9%
Maine
9%
New Hampshire
6%
Montana
4%
Florida (Special)
7%
Virginia
3%
North Carolina
2%
Georgia
2%
New Mexico
1%
Minnesota
1%
Colorado
<1%
Texas 15%
Iowa 14.1%
Michigan 10.8%
Alaska 11%
$42,046 Vol.
$42,046 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
$1,876 Vol.
15%
Iowa
$3,287 Vol.
14%
Michigan
$3,055 Vol.
11%
Alaska
$7,695 Vol.
11%
Nebraska
$2,730 Vol.
9%
Ohio (Special)
$8,979 Vol.
9%
Maine
$1,398 Vol.
9%
New Hampshire
$788 Vol.
6%
Montana
$1,643 Vol.
4%
Florida (Special)
$390 Vol.
7%
Virginia
$5,073 Vol.
3%
North Carolina
$1,483 Vol.
2%
Georgia
$824 Vol.
2%
New Mexico
$160 Vol.
1%
Minnesota
$1,561 Vol.
1%
Colorado
$1,103 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 Senate contests remain within a few points in recent polling averages, with Texas, Iowa, Michigan, Alaska, and Maine rated toss-ups by major forecasters due to open seats, retirements, and strong challengers. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico faces Republican Ken Paxton in a race where fundraising and turnout among suburban voters could decide a narrow outcome. Iowa pits Republican Ashley Hinson against Democrat Josh Turek following Joni Ernst’s retirement, while Michigan’s open seat after Gary Peters pits Abdul El-Sayed against Mike Rogers. Traders assign the highest probabilities to Texas and Iowa as the narrowest finish because sustained national generic ballot trends and late-cycle shifts in these battlegrounds continue to compress projected margins ahead of November 3.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
Volume
$42,046Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 Senate contests remain within a few points in recent polling averages, with Texas, Iowa, Michigan, Alaska, and Maine rated toss-ups by major forecasters due to open seats, retirements, and strong challengers. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico faces Republican Ken Paxton in a race where fundraising and turnout among suburban voters could decide a narrow outcome. Iowa pits Republican Ashley Hinson against Democrat Josh Turek following Joni Ernst’s retirement, while Michigan’s open seat after Gary Peters pits Abdul El-Sayed against Mike Rogers. Traders assign the highest probabilities to Texas and Iowa as the narrowest finish because sustained national generic ballot trends and late-cycle shifts in these battlegrounds continue to compress projected margins ahead of November 3.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$42,046Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Several 2026 Senate contests remain within a few points in recent polling averages, with Texas, Iowa, Michigan, Alaska, and Maine rated toss-ups by major forecasters due to open seats, retirements, and strong challengers. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico faces Republican Ken Paxton in a race where fundraising and turnout among suburban voters could decide a narrow outcome. Iowa pits Republican Ashley Hinson against Democrat Josh Turek following Joni Ernst’s retirement, while Michigan’s open seat after Gary Peters pits Abdul El-Sayed against Mike Rogers. Traders assign the highest probabilities to Texas and Iowa as the narrowest finish because sustained national generic ballot trends and late-cycle shifts in these battlegrounds continue to compress projected margins ahead of November 3.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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