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icon for Which Senate races will be within 5%?

Which Senate races will be within 5%?

icon for Which Senate races will be within 5%?

Which Senate races will be within 5%?

$62,628 Vol.

Nov 3, 2026
Polymarket

$62,628 Vol.

Polymarket

Texas

$7,129 Vol.

84%

Kansas

$556 Vol.

73%

Alaska

$2,789 Vol.

68%

Michigan

$2,735 Vol.

62%

Iowa

$5,645 Vol.

62%

Ohio (Special)

$3,936 Vol.

57%

Maine

$1,020 Vol.

56%

New Hampshire

$2,352 Vol.

61%

Nebraska

$3,687 Vol.

48%

Georgia

$1,394 Vol.

27%

Florida (Special)

$2,450 Vol.

25%

Minnesota

$9,715 Vol.

21%

North Carolina

$5,584 Vol.

13%

New Mexico

$6,665 Vol.

12%

Montana

$2,919 Vol.

8%

Virginia

$1,344 Vol.

4%

Colorado

$2,599 Vol.

4%

South Carolina

$109 Vol.

53%

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling aggregates show a Democratic-leaning national environment with a generic ballot lead near D+7, keeping multiple 2026 Senate contests tight and likely to finish within 5 points. Key battlegrounds include Texas, Alaska, Michigan, Ohio, Maine, Iowa, and New Hampshire, where open seats from retirements, candidate matchups such as Collins versus Jackson or Peltola versus Sullivan, and state-level dynamics have produced margins under 3 points in recent surveys. Republicans defend more seats overall but benefit from the vice presidential tiebreaker, while Democrats target flips in states like Maine and North Carolina alongside holds in Michigan. With Election Day on November 3, late shifts in turnout or economic sentiment could narrow or widen several of these races.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.

The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$62,628
Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling aggregates show a Democratic-leaning national environment with a generic ballot lead near D+7, keeping multiple 2026 Senate contests tight and likely to finish within 5 points. Key battlegrounds include Texas, Alaska, Michigan, Ohio, Maine, Iowa, and New Hampshire, where open seats from retirements, candidate matchups such as Collins versus Jackson or Peltola versus Sullivan, and state-level dynamics have produced margins under 3 points in recent surveys. Republicans defend more seats overall but benefit from the vice presidential tiebreaker, while Democrats target flips in states like Maine and North Carolina alongside holds in Michigan. With Election Day on November 3, late shifts in turnout or economic sentiment could narrow or widen several of these races.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.

The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$62,628
Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ET

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Which Senate races will be within 5%?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 18 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Texas" di 84%, diikuti oleh "Kansas" di 73%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 84¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 84% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Which Senate races will be within 5%?" telah menghasilkan $62.6K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Jul 29, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Which Senate races will be within 5%?," jelajahi 18 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Which Senate races will be within 5%?" adalah "Texas" di 84%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 84% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Kansas" di 73%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Which Senate races will be within 5%?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.