Recent numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and ECMWF runs, show consensus for a high of 31–33 °C in Madrid on September 21 under clear skies, light southerly or easterly winds, and high pressure maintaining dry, stable conditions. Afternoon temperatures are projected to peak near or slightly above 32 °C, consistent with the warm anomaly observed through mid-September. This positions the 32 °C outcome as the market leader, with 33 °C retaining secondary support if daytime heating exceeds model means. The 31 °C bin captures lower-end uncertainty from minor timing or boundary-layer variations, while probabilities for 34 °C or higher remain minimal given current steering patterns and lack of stronger subsidence. Historical September 21 highs average 25 °C, so the current setup represents a notable positive departure with low precipitation risk. Updated model guidance and official AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours will refine exact maxima ahead of market resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Madrid on September 21?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 21?
32°C 63%
33°C 40%
34°C 8%
30°C 5%
BARU
BARU
Sep 21, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
3%
30°C
5%
31°C
7%
32°C
63%
33°C
29%
34°C
8%
35°C
5%
36°C or higher
4%
32°C 63%
33°C 40%
34°C 8%
30°C 5%
BARU
BARU
Sep 21, 2026
26°C or below
$381 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$156 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$83 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$5 Vol.
3%
30°C
$0 Vol.
5%
31°C
$11 Vol.
7%
32°C
$2,406 Vol.
63%
33°C
$3 Vol.
29%
34°C
$10 Vol.
8%
35°C
$0 Vol.
5%
36°C or higher
$5 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and ECMWF runs, show consensus for a high of 31–33 °C in Madrid on September 21 under clear skies, light southerly or easterly winds, and high pressure maintaining dry, stable conditions. Afternoon temperatures are projected to peak near or slightly above 32 °C, consistent with the warm anomaly observed through mid-September. This positions the 32 °C outcome as the market leader, with 33 °C retaining secondary support if daytime heating exceeds model means. The 31 °C bin captures lower-end uncertainty from minor timing or boundary-layer variations, while probabilities for 34 °C or higher remain minimal given current steering patterns and lack of stronger subsidence. Historical September 21 highs average 25 °C, so the current setup represents a notable positive departure with low precipitation risk. Updated model guidance and official AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours will refine exact maxima ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$3,060Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 21, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and ECMWF runs, show consensus for a high of 31–33 °C in Madrid on September 21 under clear skies, light southerly or easterly winds, and high pressure maintaining dry, stable conditions. Afternoon temperatures are projected to peak near or slightly above 32 °C, consistent with the warm anomaly observed through mid-September. This positions the 32 °C outcome as the market leader, with 33 °C retaining secondary support if daytime heating exceeds model means. The 31 °C bin captures lower-end uncertainty from minor timing or boundary-layer variations, while probabilities for 34 °C or higher remain minimal given current steering patterns and lack of stronger subsidence. Historical September 21 highs average 25 °C, so the current setup represents a notable positive departure with low precipitation risk. Updated model guidance and official AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours will refine exact maxima ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,060Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 21, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and ECMWF runs, show consensus for a high of 31–33 °C in Madrid on September 21 under clear skies, light southerly or easterly winds, and high pressure maintaining dry, stable conditions. Afternoon temperatures are projected to peak near or slightly above 32 °C, consistent with the warm anomaly observed through mid-September. This positions the 32 °C outcome as the market leader, with 33 °C retaining secondary support if daytime heating exceeds model means. The 31 °C bin captures lower-end uncertainty from minor timing or boundary-layer variations, while probabilities for 34 °C or higher remain minimal given current steering patterns and lack of stronger subsidence. Historical September 21 highs average 25 °C, so the current setup represents a notable positive departure with low precipitation risk. Updated model guidance and official AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours will refine exact maxima ahead of market resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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