**Recent model consensus from Météo-France and ECMWF places the most likely peak temperature in Paris on July 9, 2026, between 33–35 °C, aligning with the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around those levels (34 °C at 35 %, 35 °C at 27 %, 36 °C at 18 %, 33 °C at 17 %).** An intense early-July heatwave driven by a strong high-pressure ridge and clear skies has already produced highs near 35–36 °C on July 7–8. For July 9, the primary differentiating factors are subtle shifts in the ensemble spread: slightly stronger northeasterly flow or modest cloud build-up could cap the maximum near 33 °C, while continued subsidence and full insolation would favor 35–36 °C. Official short-range guidance shows low precipitation risk but a modest cooling trend relative to mid-week peaks, keeping extreme outcomes (≥37 °C or ≤32 °C) at low probabilities. Updated model runs over the next 24–48 hours will narrow the spread ahead of market resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Paris on July 9?
Highest temperature in Paris on July 9?
33°C 100.0%
31°C or below <1%
32°C <1%
34°C <1%
$127,943 Vol.
$127,943 Vol.
Jul 9, 2026
31°C or below
No
32°C
No
33°C
Yes
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C
No
40°C
No
41°C or higher
No
33°C 100.0%
31°C or below <1%
32°C <1%
34°C <1%
$127,943 Vol.
$127,943 Vol.
Jul 9, 2026
31°C or below
$19,528 Vol.
No
32°C
$23,021 Vol.
No
33°C
$27,068 Vol.
Yes
34°C
$16,078 Vol.
No
35°C
$16,069 Vol.
No
36°C
$12,017 Vol.
No
37°C
$5,338 Vol.
No
38°C
$2,609 Vol.
No
39°C
$2,151 Vol.
No
40°C
$1,926 Vol.
No
41°C or higher
$2,139 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent model consensus from Météo-France and ECMWF places the most likely peak temperature in Paris on July 9, 2026, between 33–35 °C, aligning with the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around those levels (34 °C at 35 %, 35 °C at 27 %, 36 °C at 18 %, 33 °C at 17 %).**
An intense early-July heatwave driven by a strong high-pressure ridge and clear skies has already produced highs near 35–36 °C on July 7–8. For July 9, the primary differentiating factors are subtle shifts in the ensemble spread: slightly stronger northeasterly flow or modest cloud build-up could cap the maximum near 33 °C, while continued subsidence and full insolation would favor 35–36 °C. Official short-range guidance shows low precipitation risk but a modest cooling trend relative to mid-week peaks, keeping extreme outcomes (≥37 °C or ≤32 °C) at low probabilities. Updated model runs over the next 24–48 hours will narrow the spread ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 7, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$127,943Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 9, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 7, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent model consensus from Météo-France and ECMWF places the most likely peak temperature in Paris on July 9, 2026, between 33–35 °C, aligning with the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around those levels (34 °C at 35 %, 35 °C at 27 %, 36 °C at 18 %, 33 °C at 17 %).**
An intense early-July heatwave driven by a strong high-pressure ridge and clear skies has already produced highs near 35–36 °C on July 7–8. For July 9, the primary differentiating factors are subtle shifts in the ensemble spread: slightly stronger northeasterly flow or modest cloud build-up could cap the maximum near 33 °C, while continued subsidence and full insolation would favor 35–36 °C. Official short-range guidance shows low precipitation risk but a modest cooling trend relative to mid-week peaks, keeping extreme outcomes (≥37 °C or ≤32 °C) at low probabilities. Updated model runs over the next 24–48 hours will narrow the spread ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$127,943Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 9, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 7, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
**Recent model consensus from Météo-France and ECMWF places the most likely peak temperature in Paris on July 9, 2026, between 33–35 °C, aligning with the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around those levels (34 °C at 35 %, 35 °C at 27 %, 36 °C at 18 %, 33 °C at 17 %).** An intense early-July heatwave driven by a strong high-pressure ridge and clear skies has already produced highs near 35–36 °C on July 7–8. For July 9, the primary differentiating factors are subtle shifts in the ensemble spread: slightly stronger northeasterly flow or modest cloud build-up could cap the maximum near 33 °C, while continued subsidence and full insolation would favor 35–36 °C. Official short-range guidance shows low precipitation risk but a modest cooling trend relative to mid-week peaks, keeping extreme outcomes (≥37 °C or ≤32 °C) at low probabilities. Updated model runs over the next 24–48 hours will narrow the spread ahead of market resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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