Current numerical weather prediction ensembles from ECMWF and GFS indicate a most likely daily maximum near 29°C for Warsaw on July 16, driving the market's peak implied probability at that bracket. With only a 48-hour lead time, 1–2°C model spread and minor differences in predicted boundary-layer mixing, cloud cover, and warm-air advection sustain the observed distribution across 27–31°C outcomes. Key variables include the strength and position of any subtropical ridge or Atlantic trough steering the flow, surface wind speeds modulating daytime heating, and soil-moisture feedback on sensible-heat flux; clearer skies or stronger southerly flow would favor the upper tail near 32°C, while increased low-level moisture or residual cloud would cap readings closer to 28°C. Updated high-resolution runs and observational assimilation in the next 24 hours remain the primary near-term catalysts for shifts in trader positioning.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Warsaw on July 16?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 16?
30°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$38,688 Vol.
$38,688 Vol.
Jul 16, 2026
24°C or below
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
Yes
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C or higher
No
30°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$38,688 Vol.
$38,688 Vol.
Jul 16, 2026
24°C or below
$502 Vol.
No
25°C
$762 Vol.
No
26°C
$2,621 Vol.
No
27°C
$3,781 Vol.
No
28°C
$8,906 Vol.
No
29°C
$5,484 Vol.
No
30°C
$6,134 Vol.
Yes
31°C
$6,142 Vol.
No
32°C
$2,631 Vol.
No
33°C
$1,413 Vol.
No
34°C or higher
$311 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction ensembles from ECMWF and GFS indicate a most likely daily maximum near 29°C for Warsaw on July 16, driving the market's peak implied probability at that bracket. With only a 48-hour lead time, 1–2°C model spread and minor differences in predicted boundary-layer mixing, cloud cover, and warm-air advection sustain the observed distribution across 27–31°C outcomes. Key variables include the strength and position of any subtropical ridge or Atlantic trough steering the flow, surface wind speeds modulating daytime heating, and soil-moisture feedback on sensible-heat flux; clearer skies or stronger southerly flow would favor the upper tail near 32°C, while increased low-level moisture or residual cloud would cap readings closer to 28°C. Updated high-resolution runs and observational assimilation in the next 24 hours remain the primary near-term catalysts for shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 14, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$38,688Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 16, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 14, 2026, 12:03 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction ensembles from ECMWF and GFS indicate a most likely daily maximum near 29°C for Warsaw on July 16, driving the market's peak implied probability at that bracket. With only a 48-hour lead time, 1–2°C model spread and minor differences in predicted boundary-layer mixing, cloud cover, and warm-air advection sustain the observed distribution across 27–31°C outcomes. Key variables include the strength and position of any subtropical ridge or Atlantic trough steering the flow, surface wind speeds modulating daytime heating, and soil-moisture feedback on sensible-heat flux; clearer skies or stronger southerly flow would favor the upper tail near 32°C, while increased low-level moisture or residual cloud would cap readings closer to 28°C. Updated high-resolution runs and observational assimilation in the next 24 hours remain the primary near-term catalysts for shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$38,688Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 16, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 14, 2026, 12:03 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
Current numerical weather prediction ensembles from ECMWF and GFS indicate a most likely daily maximum near 29°C for Warsaw on July 16, driving the market's peak implied probability at that bracket. With only a 48-hour lead time, 1–2°C model spread and minor differences in predicted boundary-layer mixing, cloud cover, and warm-air advection sustain the observed distribution across 27–31°C outcomes. Key variables include the strength and position of any subtropical ridge or Atlantic trough steering the flow, surface wind speeds modulating daytime heating, and soil-moisture feedback on sensible-heat flux; clearer skies or stronger southerly flow would favor the upper tail near 32°C, while increased low-level moisture or residual cloud would cap readings closer to 28°C. Updated high-resolution runs and observational assimilation in the next 24 hours remain the primary near-term catalysts for shifts in trader positioning.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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