Polymarket traders show fragmented sentiment on India calendar-year 2026 CPI inflation, with sub-0.75% implied at 30%, 1.50%-2.24% at 26%, and 3.75%-4.49% at 24%, reflecting bets on either aggressive disinflation from favorable base effects and prior FY26 softening or reacceleration amid risks. March 2026 CPI rose modestly to 3.4% year-on-year—driven by food at 3.87%—while WPI hit 3.88%, staying within RBI's 2%-6% target band; the central bank's April MPC held repo at 5.25% and projected FY27 CPI at 4.6% (Q1:4.0%), citing West Asia oil tensions. Key differentiators include monsoon outcomes, global energy prices, and April CPI (due May 12), with core inflation at 4.4% signaling contained pressures versus upside volatility.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui<0.75% 34%
4.50%+ 27%
1.50% to 2.24% 24%
2.25% to 2.99% 20%
$57,516 Vol.
$57,516 Vol.
<0.75%
22%
0.75% to 1.49%
1%
1.50% to 2.24%
24%
2.25% to 2.99%
13%
3.00% to 3.74%
14%
3.75% to 4.49%
32%
4.50%+
19%
<0.75% 34%
4.50%+ 27%
1.50% to 2.24% 24%
2.25% to 2.99% 20%
$57,516 Vol.
$57,516 Vol.
<0.75%
22%
0.75% to 1.49%
1%
1.50% to 2.24%
24%
2.25% to 2.99%
13%
3.00% to 3.74%
14%
3.75% to 4.49%
32%
4.50%+
19%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Pasar Dibuka: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders show fragmented sentiment on India calendar-year 2026 CPI inflation, with sub-0.75% implied at 30%, 1.50%-2.24% at 26%, and 3.75%-4.49% at 24%, reflecting bets on either aggressive disinflation from favorable base effects and prior FY26 softening or reacceleration amid risks. March 2026 CPI rose modestly to 3.4% year-on-year—driven by food at 3.87%—while WPI hit 3.88%, staying within RBI's 2%-6% target band; the central bank's April MPC held repo at 5.25% and projected FY27 CPI at 4.6% (Q1:4.0%), citing West Asia oil tensions. Key differentiators include monsoon outcomes, global energy prices, and April CPI (due May 12), with core inflation at 4.4% signaling contained pressures versus upside volatility.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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