**Ali Khamenei’s assassination on February 28, 2026, in a joint U.S.-Israeli strike triggered Iran’s constitutional succession process under Article 111, with a temporary three-member council (including President Masoud Pezeshkian) assuming interim powers until the Assembly of Experts elected Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader on March 9.** This marked the Islamic Republic’s first dynastic transition and only the second leadership change since 1989. As of mid-August 2026, Mojtaba remains in the role amid ongoing military-economic confrontation with the United States and Israel, including disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and sanctions pressure. Recent developments center on his appointments of hard-line IRGC figures to security posts, intra-regime debates over negotiations versus confrontation, and public signals of regime continuity despite domestic economic strain. Any further near-term change would require major new shocks such as additional strikes, large-scale internal defections, or health-related incapacitation.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$23,976,417 Vol.
Aug 22, 2026
August 22
<1%
August 31
1%
September 30
4%
October 31
8%
November 30
10%
31 Desember
16%
June 30, 2027
25%
$23,976,417 Vol.
August 22
$79,499 Vol.
<1%
August 31
$1,436,424 Vol.
1%
September 30
$475,475 Vol.
4%
October 31
$21,124 Vol.
8%
November 30
$18,026 Vol.
10%
31 Desember
$4,090,162 Vol.
16%
June 30, 2027
$247,516 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Ali Khamenei’s assassination on February 28, 2026, in a joint U.S.-Israeli strike triggered Iran’s constitutional succession process under Article 111, with a temporary three-member council (including President Masoud Pezeshkian) assuming interim powers until the Assembly of Experts elected Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader on March 9.**
This marked the Islamic Republic’s first dynastic transition and only the second leadership change since 1989. As of mid-August 2026, Mojtaba remains in the role amid ongoing military-economic confrontation with the United States and Israel, including disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and sanctions pressure. Recent developments center on his appointments of hard-line IRGC figures to security posts, intra-regime debates over negotiations versus confrontation, and public signals of regime continuity despite domestic economic strain. Any further near-term change would require major new shocks such as additional strikes, large-scale internal defections, or health-related incapacitation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ET
Volume
$23,976,417Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Ali Khamenei’s assassination on February 28, 2026, in a joint U.S.-Israeli strike triggered Iran’s constitutional succession process under Article 111, with a temporary three-member council (including President Masoud Pezeshkian) assuming interim powers until the Assembly of Experts elected Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader on March 9.**
This marked the Islamic Republic’s first dynastic transition and only the second leadership change since 1989. As of mid-August 2026, Mojtaba remains in the role amid ongoing military-economic confrontation with the United States and Israel, including disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and sanctions pressure. Recent developments center on his appointments of hard-line IRGC figures to security posts, intra-regime debates over negotiations versus confrontation, and public signals of regime continuity despite domestic economic strain. Any further near-term change would require major new shocks such as additional strikes, large-scale internal defections, or health-related incapacitation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$23,976,417Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Ali Khamenei’s assassination on February 28, 2026, in a joint U.S.-Israeli strike triggered Iran’s constitutional succession process under Article 111, with a temporary three-member council (including President Masoud Pezeshkian) assuming interim powers until the Assembly of Experts elected Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader on March 9.** This marked the Islamic Republic’s first dynastic transition and only the second leadership change since 1989. As of mid-August 2026, Mojtaba remains in the role amid ongoing military-economic confrontation with the United States and Israel, including disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and sanctions pressure. Recent developments center on his appointments of hard-line IRGC figures to security posts, intra-regime debates over negotiations versus confrontation, and public signals of regime continuity despite domestic economic strain. Any further near-term change would require major new shocks such as additional strikes, large-scale internal defections, or health-related incapacitation.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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